Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading with roughly 38–46 percent support, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party in the low-to-mid 30s. Other declared candidates, including writer Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos, remain in single digits. Brazil’s two-round system advances the top two finishers if no candidate secures an outright majority. Runoff simulations between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are statistically tied or separated by only a few points, reflecting a polarized electorate and stable voter blocs. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this positioning in the past month, with the runoff, if required, set for October 25.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?
Quais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?
$623,942 Vol.
3 out 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
96%
Renan Santos
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$623,942 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$280,143 Vol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$107,403 Vol.
96%
Renan Santos
$26,151 Vol.
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$37,775 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$833 Vol.
1%
Romeu Zema
$1,434 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$17,749 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$86,584 Vol.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,870 Vol.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading with roughly 38–46 percent support, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party in the low-to-mid 30s. Other declared candidates, including writer Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos, remain in single digits. Brazil’s two-round system advances the top two finishers if no candidate secures an outright majority. Runoff simulations between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are statistically tied or separated by only a few points, reflecting a polarized electorate and stable voter blocs. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this positioning in the past month, with the runoff, if required, set for October 25.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ET
Volume
$623,942Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading with roughly 38–46 percent support, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party in the low-to-mid 30s. Other declared candidates, including writer Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos, remain in single digits. Brazil’s two-round system advances the top two finishers if no candidate secures an outright majority. Runoff simulations between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are statistically tied or separated by only a few points, reflecting a polarized electorate and stable voter blocs. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this positioning in the past month, with the runoff, if required, set for October 25.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$623,942Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leading with roughly 38–46 percent support, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party in the low-to-mid 30s. Other declared candidates, including writer Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos, remain in single digits. Brazil’s two-round system advances the top two finishers if no candidate secures an outright majority. Runoff simulations between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are statistically tied or separated by only a few points, reflecting a polarized electorate and stable voter blocs. No major late-campaign shifts have altered this positioning in the past month, with the runoff, if required, set for October 25.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions