Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ideia, and Vox Brasil place him between 41% and 53% in the first round, ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points, with other candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França polling in low single digits. This positioning reflects his established voter base in Brazil’s most populous state, consolidation of center-right support, and Haddad’s structural challenges as the main opposition contender. Trader consensus at 93.5% aligns with these patterns. Late shifts could arise from runoff dynamics, debate performances, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition or economic developments before the first-round threshold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,524 Vol.
$279,524 Vol.
4 out 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
94%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,524 Vol.
$279,524 Vol.
4 out 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$123,143 Vol.
94%
Fernando Haddad
$47,232 Vol.
4%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,777 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ideia, and Vox Brasil place him between 41% and 53% in the first round, ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points, with other candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França polling in low single digits. This positioning reflects his established voter base in Brazil’s most populous state, consolidation of center-right support, and Haddad’s structural challenges as the main opposition contender. Trader consensus at 93.5% aligns with these patterns. Late shifts could arise from runoff dynamics, debate performances, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition or economic developments before the first-round threshold.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$279,524Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ideia, and Vox Brasil place him between 41% and 53% in the first round, ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points, with other candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França polling in low single digits. This positioning reflects his established voter base in Brazil’s most populous state, consolidation of center-right support, and Haddad’s structural challenges as the main opposition contender. Trader consensus at 93.5% aligns with these patterns. Late shifts could arise from runoff dynamics, debate performances, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition or economic developments before the first-round threshold.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$279,524Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ideia, and Vox Brasil place him between 41% and 53% in the first round, ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points, with other candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França polling in low single digits. This positioning reflects his established voter base in Brazil’s most populous state, consolidation of center-right support, and Haddad’s structural challenges as the main opposition contender. Trader consensus at 93.5% aligns with these patterns. Late shifts could arise from runoff dynamics, debate performances, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition or economic developments before the first-round threshold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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