Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by consistent leads in recent polls including Quaest (38% to Haddad's 26% in late April), Paraná Pesquisas (47% with a 14-point edge), and AtlasIntel (49% to 42%). His approval ratings, ranging 45-64% per Datafolha and Paraná surveys, underscore strong incumbency advantages amid state economic management and privatization pushes clashing with challenger Fernando Haddad's platform. Haddad, who resigned as federal Finance Minister in March to run, trails as the main PT-aligned contender at 11.8%, while liberals like Kim Kataguiri (4.2%) and others lag far behind in early intention-of-vote surveys. A first-round majority or runoff path favors the front-runner absent major shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 11.7%
Kim Kataguiri 4.2%
Erika Hilton 2.2%
$22,055 Vol.
$22,055 Vol.
4 out 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Fernando Haddad
12%
Kim Kataguiri
4%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 11.7%
Kim Kataguiri 4.2%
Erika Hilton 2.2%
$22,055 Vol.
$22,055 Vol.
4 out 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,072 Vol.
83%
Fernando Haddad
$3,541 Vol.
12%
Kim Kataguiri
$1,910 Vol.
4%
Erika Hilton
$3,189 Vol.
2%
Márcio França
$2,343 Vol.
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by consistent leads in recent polls including Quaest (38% to Haddad's 26% in late April), Paraná Pesquisas (47% with a 14-point edge), and AtlasIntel (49% to 42%). His approval ratings, ranging 45-64% per Datafolha and Paraná surveys, underscore strong incumbency advantages amid state economic management and privatization pushes clashing with challenger Fernando Haddad's platform. Haddad, who resigned as federal Finance Minister in March to run, trails as the main PT-aligned contender at 11.8%, while liberals like Kim Kataguiri (4.2%) and others lag far behind in early intention-of-vote surveys. A first-round majority or runoff path favors the front-runner absent major shifts.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$22,055Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by consistent leads in recent polls including Quaest (38% to Haddad's 26% in late April), Paraná Pesquisas (47% with a 14-point edge), and AtlasIntel (49% to 42%). His approval ratings, ranging 45-64% per Datafolha and Paraná surveys, underscore strong incumbency advantages amid state economic management and privatization pushes clashing with challenger Fernando Haddad's platform. Haddad, who resigned as federal Finance Minister in March to run, trails as the main PT-aligned contender at 11.8%, while liberals like Kim Kataguiri (4.2%) and others lag far behind in early intention-of-vote surveys. A first-round majority or runoff path favors the front-runner absent major shifts.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$22,055Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by consistent leads in recent polls including Quaest (38% to Haddad's 26% in late April), Paraná Pesquisas (47% with a 14-point edge), and AtlasIntel (49% to 42%). His approval ratings, ranging 45-64% per Datafolha and Paraná surveys, underscore strong incumbency advantages amid state economic management and privatization pushes clashing with challenger Fernando Haddad's platform. Haddad, who resigned as federal Finance Minister in March to run, trails as the main PT-aligned contender at 11.8%, while liberals like Kim Kataguiri (4.2%) and others lag far behind in early intention-of-vote surveys. A first-round majority or runoff path favors the front-runner absent major shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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