**Recent judicial actions by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) Justice Dias Toffoli have created the tight 50% implied probability on whether Renan Santos will join additional debates before the October 4 first-round vote.** Santos, the Missão party candidate and former MBL leader, took part in the August 23 Band debate alongside Ronaldo Caiado and Augusto Cury after frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro opted out. On August 31, Toffoli issued a temporary order suspending Santos’ debate participation, freezing electoral fund transfers, and restricting unregistered social media use, citing late disclosure of profiles. The ruling was quickly adjusted days later to permit activity on properly registered accounts and restore debate eligibility, though the underlying candidacy registration review continues. This sequence of suspension and partial reversal, combined with the confirmed September 14 debate slot still ahead of the first round, has left traders evenly split. Further court rulings on registration compliance, appeals outcomes, or Santos’ confirmed attendance at the next event could shift the balance in either direction.