**Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes will not be removed from Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because institutional protections and procedural barriers remain high despite recent scrutiny.** Revelations in early September 2026 from a Federal Police report in the Banco Master case—detailing messages between Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro plus a multimillion-real contract involving Moraes’s wife’s law firm—prompted media editorials and over 55 impeachment petitions in the Senate from opposition figures. However, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has not advanced the requests, and the STF plenary session on September 15 postponed any internal investigation after one justice requested additional review time (up to 90 days). Chief Justice Edson Fachin has assumed oversight of related probes, sidelined Moraes from the longstanding fake-news inquiry, and managed internal disputes with Justice André Mendonça without triggering removal proceedings. STF justices hold tenure until age 75, with Senate impeachment requiring a supermajority that has historically proven difficult absent broader political consensus. The October presidential election adds further uncertainty but has not altered Moraes’s active status as of September 20.