Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado200-219 20%
180-199 19%
220-239 16%
160-179 13%
NOVO
$272,614 Vol.
NOVO
$272,614 Vol.
3 jul 2026
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
2%
140-159
5%
160-179
13%
180-199
19%
200-219
20%
220-239
16%
240-259
8%
260-279
5%
280-299
3%
300-319
2%
320-339
3%
340-359
2%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 20%
180-199 19%
220-239 16%
160-179 13%
NOVO
$272,614 Vol.
NOVO
$272,614 Vol.
3 jul 2026
<20
$6,441 Vol.
<1%
20-39
$6,441 Vol.
<1%
40-59
$1,158 Vol.
<1%
60-79
$9,677 Vol.
<1%
80-99
$2,097 Vol.
<1%
100-119
$2,519 Vol.
1%
120-139
$2,777 Vol.
2%
140-159
$2,685 Vol.
5%
160-179
$1,901 Vol.
13%
180-199
$5,997 Vol.
19%
200-219
$4,165 Vol.
20%
220-239
$2,112 Vol.
16%
240-259
$2,308 Vol.
8%
260-279
$1,710 Vol.
5%
280-299
$2,194 Vol.
3%
300-319
$2,007 Vol.
2%
320-339
$2,843 Vol.
3%
340-359
$7,890 Vol.
2%
360-379
$8,751 Vol.
1%
380-399
$8,769 Vol.
1%
400-419
$13,281 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$13,775 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$54,774 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$22,677 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$18,969 Vol.
<1%
500+
$64,697 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$272,614Data de Término
3 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$272,614Data de Término
3 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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