**Neymar’s inclusion in Brazil’s 2026 World Cup squad under Carlo Ancelotti, combined with the short expected recovery timeline from his grade-2 calf injury, underpins the strong 90.5% implied probability that he will see action.** The 34-year-old sustained the injury in mid-May while playing for Santos and has missed Brazil’s pre-tournament friendlies as well as the Group C opener against Morocco on June 13. Official medical updates from the Brazilian Football Confederation and team doctor Rodrigo Lasmar indicate steady progress within the anticipated two-to-three-week window, with Ancelotti confirming Neymar will rejoin full training the week after the opener. This timeline positions a potential return for the June 20 match against Haiti or subsequent group-stage fixtures. Neymar’s selection itself reflects his enduring value as the Seleção’s all-time leading scorer and cultural leader, even after limited international appearances since 2023. While his fitness remains a variable—particularly given his age and injury history—the current trajectory shows no structural barriers to participation. Brazil’s group-stage schedule and the absence of any reported setbacks further support trader consensus that he will feature before the tournament concludes.