Recent Cabinet turnover in the Trump administration, including the departures of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer between March and April 2026, has kept expectations for additional exits in play through year-end. These changes, driven by congressional scrutiny over enforcement operations, shifting legal priorities, and reported internal frustrations, have created a baseline of three early-year shifts that traders weigh against the potential for stabilization. The closely matched probabilities around one to three further departures reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing priorities such as immigration enforcement and budget negotiations will sustain momentum for change or allow the remaining lineup to hold steady. Future catalysts could include new congressional hearings, policy implementation challenges, or high-profile resignations that tip the balance toward higher or lower totals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado2 32%
1 27%
7+ 23%
3 22%
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
0
9%
1
26%
2
22%
3
26%
4
20%
5
16%
6
15%
7+
23%
2 32%
1 27%
7+ 23%
3 22%
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
0
$371 Vol.
9%
1
$205 Vol.
26%
2
$234 Vol.
22%
3
$159 Vol.
26%
4
$193 Vol.
20%
5
$190 Vol.
16%
6
$227 Vol.
15%
7+
$1,285 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent Cabinet turnover in the Trump administration, including the departures of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer between March and April 2026, has kept expectations for additional exits in play through year-end. These changes, driven by congressional scrutiny over enforcement operations, shifting legal priorities, and reported internal frustrations, have created a baseline of three early-year shifts that traders weigh against the potential for stabilization. The closely matched probabilities around one to three further departures reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing priorities such as immigration enforcement and budget negotiations will sustain momentum for change or allow the remaining lineup to hold steady. Future catalysts could include new congressional hearings, policy implementation challenges, or high-profile resignations that tip the balance toward higher or lower totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,865Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent Cabinet turnover in the Trump administration, including the departures of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer between March and April 2026, has kept expectations for additional exits in play through year-end. These changes, driven by congressional scrutiny over enforcement operations, shifting legal priorities, and reported internal frustrations, have created a baseline of three early-year shifts that traders weigh against the potential for stabilization. The closely matched probabilities around one to three further departures reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing priorities such as immigration enforcement and budget negotiations will sustain momentum for change or allow the remaining lineup to hold steady. Future catalysts could include new congressional hearings, policy implementation challenges, or high-profile resignations that tip the balance toward higher or lower totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Volume
$2,865Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Cabinet turnover in the Trump administration, including the departures of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer between March and April 2026, has kept expectations for additional exits in play through year-end. These changes, driven by congressional scrutiny over enforcement operations, shifting legal priorities, and reported internal frustrations, have created a baseline of three early-year shifts that traders weigh against the potential for stabilization. The closely matched probabilities around one to three further departures reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing priorities such as immigration enforcement and budget negotiations will sustain momentum for change or allow the remaining lineup to hold steady. Future catalysts could include new congressional hearings, policy implementation challenges, or high-profile resignations that tip the balance toward higher or lower totals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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