The United States declined to extend the USMCA for another 16-year term at the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This triggered the shift to annual reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension, even as Mexico and Canada expressed support for continuation. Ongoing bilateral negotiations with Mexico, including a third round in July, have focused on addressing U.S. concerns over trade imbalances and provisions, but no consensus for a 2026 extension has emerged. The agreement remains in force pending further talks or potential withdrawal, aligning trader consensus with the explicit U.S. position at the review milestone.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
15% chance
$10,215 Vol.
$10,215 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
15% chance
$10,215 Vol.
$10,215 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States declined to extend the USMCA for another 16-year term at the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This triggered the shift to annual reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension, even as Mexico and Canada expressed support for continuation. Ongoing bilateral negotiations with Mexico, including a third round in July, have focused on addressing U.S. concerns over trade imbalances and provisions, but no consensus for a 2026 extension has emerged. The agreement remains in force pending further talks or potential withdrawal, aligning trader consensus with the explicit U.S. position at the review milestone.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,215Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States declined to extend the USMCA for another 16-year term at the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This triggered the shift to annual reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension, even as Mexico and Canada expressed support for continuation. Ongoing bilateral negotiations with Mexico, including a third round in July, have focused on addressing U.S. concerns over trade imbalances and provisions, but no consensus for a 2026 extension has emerged. The agreement remains in force pending further talks or potential withdrawal, aligning trader consensus with the explicit U.S. position at the review milestone.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,215Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States declined to extend the USMCA for another 16-year term at the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This triggered the shift to annual reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension, even as Mexico and Canada expressed support for continuation. Ongoing bilateral negotiations with Mexico, including a third round in July, have focused on addressing U.S. concerns over trade imbalances and provisions, but no consensus for a 2026 extension has emerged. The agreement remains in force pending further talks or potential withdrawal, aligning trader consensus with the explicit U.S. position at the review milestone.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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