Polymarket traders price a tight race for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 4.50%-4.99% band leading at 34% implied probability ahead of 4.00%-4.49% at 29%, reflecting April 2026 headline inflation easing to 4.45% year-over-year—the first decline this year—driven by seasonal electricity subsidies and softer food prices, alongside core inflation dipping to 4.26%. Banco de México's split 3-2 vote to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50% signals cautious optimism, though sticky core dynamics and relative price adjustments temper convergence to the 3% target. Banxico forecasts 3.5% for Q4 2026 average annual rates, contrasting trader consensus; May CPI data and the June policy meeting loom as key swing factors.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4,50% a 4,99% 32%
4,00% a 4,49% 22%
5,00% a 5,49% 20.7%
5,50%+ 19%
$41,172 Vol.
$41,172 Vol.
8 jan 2027
<2,50%
5%
2,50% a 2,99%
<1%
3,00% a 3,49%
7%
3,50% a 3,99%
9%
4,00% a 4,49%
28%
4,50% a 4,99%
32%
5,00% a 5,49%
21%
5,50%+
19%
4,50% a 4,99% 32%
4,00% a 4,49% 22%
5,00% a 5,49% 20.7%
5,50%+ 19%
$41,172 Vol.
$41,172 Vol.
8 jan 2027
<2,50%
$494 Vol.
5%
2,50% a 2,99%
$4,115 Vol.
<1%
3,00% a 3,49%
$25,948 Vol.
7%
3,50% a 3,99%
$396 Vol.
9%
4,00% a 4,49%
$493 Vol.
28%
4,50% a 4,99%
$3,532 Vol.
32%
5,00% a 5,49%
$1,175 Vol.
21%
5,50%+
$5,020 Vol.
19%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders price a tight race for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 4.50%-4.99% band leading at 34% implied probability ahead of 4.00%-4.49% at 29%, reflecting April 2026 headline inflation easing to 4.45% year-over-year—the first decline this year—driven by seasonal electricity subsidies and softer food prices, alongside core inflation dipping to 4.26%. Banco de México's split 3-2 vote to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50% signals cautious optimism, though sticky core dynamics and relative price adjustments temper convergence to the 3% target. Banxico forecasts 3.5% for Q4 2026 average annual rates, contrasting trader consensus; May CPI data and the June policy meeting loom as key swing factors.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Mercado Aberto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$41,172Data de Término
8 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders price a tight race for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 4.50%-4.99% band leading at 34% implied probability ahead of 4.00%-4.49% at 29%, reflecting April 2026 headline inflation easing to 4.45% year-over-year—the first decline this year—driven by seasonal electricity subsidies and softer food prices, alongside core inflation dipping to 4.26%. Banco de México's split 3-2 vote to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50% signals cautious optimism, though sticky core dynamics and relative price adjustments temper convergence to the 3% target. Banxico forecasts 3.5% for Q4 2026 average annual rates, contrasting trader consensus; May CPI data and the June policy meeting loom as key swing factors.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$41,172Data de Término
8 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a tight race for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 4.50%-4.99% band leading at 34% implied probability ahead of 4.00%-4.49% at 29%, reflecting April 2026 headline inflation easing to 4.45% year-over-year—the first decline this year—driven by seasonal electricity subsidies and softer food prices, alongside core inflation dipping to 4.26%. Banco de México's split 3-2 vote to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50% signals cautious optimism, though sticky core dynamics and relative price adjustments temper convergence to the 3% target. Banxico forecasts 3.5% for Q4 2026 average annual rates, contrasting trader consensus; May CPI data and the June policy meeting loom as key swing factors.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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