Analyst surveys from early August 2026 place median expectations for Argentina’s year-end inflation at 29.8%, down modestly from prior estimates, supported by continued monthly disinflation to 1.9–2.1% prints and the Milei administration’s fiscal surplus alongside a managed crawling-peg exchange-rate regime. Recent central-bank data show the June 2026 year-over-year rate at 33.5%, while one-year inflation expectations edged higher to 35.8% in July, highlighting lingering price inertia and relative-price adjustments. With the two leading Polymarket bins—30.0–34.9% at 51.2% and 25.0–29.9% at 44.5%—nearly balanced, traders appear focused on whether ongoing monetary tightening and reserve-building efforts can push the December 2026 reading below 30% or whether sticky core pressures and external-debt dynamics keep it in the low thirties. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming INDEC releases and the next central-bank economist survey.