Banxico's explicit forward guidance for maintaining the overnight interbank rate at its current 6.50% level drives the 85% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2026 decision. Following the final 25 basis point cut in May that concluded the easing cycle begun in 2024, the board held rates steady at its June and August meetings, citing easing headline and core inflation alongside persistent upside risks from geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and peso volatility. Recent data show inflation declining toward the 3% target by late 2027, with economic activity rebounding modestly in Q2 after Q1 contraction, reinforcing trader consensus around a prolonged pause. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October meetings plus fresh inflation and GDP releases that could shift the balance of risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNenhuma alteração 85%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 7.1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 4.1%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base 3.2%
NOVO
NOVO
5 nov 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
3%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
4%
Nenhuma alteração
85%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
7%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
1%
Nenhuma alteração 85%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 7.1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 4.1%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base 3.2%
NOVO
NOVO
5 nov 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
$272 Vol.
3%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
$319 Vol.
4%
Nenhuma alteração
$5,536 Vol.
85%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$373 Vol.
7%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$251 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico's explicit forward guidance for maintaining the overnight interbank rate at its current 6.50% level drives the 85% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2026 decision. Following the final 25 basis point cut in May that concluded the easing cycle begun in 2024, the board held rates steady at its June and August meetings, citing easing headline and core inflation alongside persistent upside risks from geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and peso volatility. Recent data show inflation declining toward the 3% target by late 2027, with economic activity rebounding modestly in Q2 after Q1 contraction, reinforcing trader consensus around a prolonged pause. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October meetings plus fresh inflation and GDP releases that could shift the balance of risks.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$6,751Data de Término
5 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico's explicit forward guidance for maintaining the overnight interbank rate at its current 6.50% level drives the 85% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2026 decision. Following the final 25 basis point cut in May that concluded the easing cycle begun in 2024, the board held rates steady at its June and August meetings, citing easing headline and core inflation alongside persistent upside risks from geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and peso volatility. Recent data show inflation declining toward the 3% target by late 2027, with economic activity rebounding modestly in Q2 after Q1 contraction, reinforcing trader consensus around a prolonged pause. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October meetings plus fresh inflation and GDP releases that could shift the balance of risks.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$6,751Data de Término
5 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...Banxico's explicit forward guidance for maintaining the overnight interbank rate at its current 6.50% level drives the 85% market-implied probability of no change at the November 2026 decision. Following the final 25 basis point cut in May that concluded the easing cycle begun in 2024, the board held rates steady at its June and August meetings, citing easing headline and core inflation alongside persistent upside risks from geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and peso volatility. Recent data show inflation declining toward the 3% target by late 2027, with economic activity rebounding modestly in Q2 after Q1 contraction, reinforcing trader consensus around a prolonged pause. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October meetings plus fresh inflation and GDP releases that could shift the balance of risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
Nenhuma mudança nas taxas de juros do Banco do México após a reunião de setembro de 2026?
95%
Sim
O Banco do Brasil reduzirá a meta para a taxa Selic em 25 pontos-base na reunião de novembro?
48%
Sim
O Banco do Canadá não fará nenhuma alteração na meta para a taxa overnight no anúncio da taxa de juros de outubro?
84%
Sim
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions