Market-implied odds assign a 63.3% probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, driven by contained core inflation measures near the 2% target alongside headline CPI holding at 3.0% year-over-year in August amid elevated energy prices. Recent Governing Council deliberations following the September 2 hold at 2.25% highlighted increased upside inflation risks from oil and gasoline but emphasized growth headwinds from U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty, keeping the policy stance data-dependent. Core metrics such as CPI-trim and CPI-median remained at 1.9% and 2.0%, showing limited pass-through. Key upcoming releases including September CPI, labor data, and the October Monetary Policy Report will shape trader reassessments ahead of the meeting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSem Alteração 63.3%
Aumento de 25 pontos base 37.5%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos base <1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base <1%
$90,896 Vol.
$90,896 Vol.
27 out 2026
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos base
<1%
Aumento de 25 pontos base
38%
Sem Alteração
63%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
<1%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Sem Alteração 63.3%
Aumento de 25 pontos base 37.5%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos base <1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base <1%
$90,896 Vol.
$90,896 Vol.
27 out 2026
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos base
$11,509 Vol.
<1%
Aumento de 25 pontos base
$23,564 Vol.
38%
Sem Alteração
$36,679 Vol.
63%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
$15,055 Vol.
<1%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
$4,089 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Market-implied odds assign a 63.3% probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, driven by contained core inflation measures near the 2% target alongside headline CPI holding at 3.0% year-over-year in August amid elevated energy prices. Recent Governing Council deliberations following the September 2 hold at 2.25% highlighted increased upside inflation risks from oil and gasoline but emphasized growth headwinds from U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty, keeping the policy stance data-dependent. Core metrics such as CPI-trim and CPI-median remained at 1.9% and 2.0%, showing limited pass-through. Key upcoming releases including September CPI, labor data, and the October Monetary Policy Report will shape trader reassessments ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Volume
$90,896Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Market-implied odds assign a 63.3% probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, driven by contained core inflation measures near the 2% target alongside headline CPI holding at 3.0% year-over-year in August amid elevated energy prices. Recent Governing Council deliberations following the September 2 hold at 2.25% highlighted increased upside inflation risks from oil and gasoline but emphasized growth headwinds from U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty, keeping the policy stance data-dependent. Core metrics such as CPI-trim and CPI-median remained at 1.9% and 2.0%, showing limited pass-through. Key upcoming releases including September CPI, labor data, and the October Monetary Policy Report will shape trader reassessments ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$90,896Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds assign a 63.3% probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, driven by contained core inflation measures near the 2% target alongside headline CPI holding at 3.0% year-over-year in August amid elevated energy prices. Recent Governing Council deliberations following the September 2 hold at 2.25% highlighted increased upside inflation risks from oil and gasoline but emphasized growth headwinds from U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty, keeping the policy stance data-dependent. Core metrics such as CPI-trim and CPI-median remained at 1.9% and 2.0%, showing limited pass-through. Key upcoming releases including September CPI, labor data, and the October Monetary Policy Report will shape trader reassessments ahead of the meeting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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