Mark Sutcliffe holds the leading position in the Ottawa mayoral race as the incumbent seeking re-election on October 26, 2026, with recent polling showing him ahead among decided voters even as his personal support has softened. The split in challenger backing—between city councillor Jeff Leiper and homebuilder Alex Lawson, who has gained ground through the summer—has widened Sutcliffe’s margin by dividing opposition votes. Lawson’s rise, fueled by outsider messaging on development and infrastructure such as a proposed ring road, has come partly at Leiper’s expense in July surveys. Catherine McKenney and Neil Saravanamuttoo remain marginal factors. With nominations certified later this month and roughly a third of voters still undecided, campaign positioning on transit, housing, and traffic will shape final voter consolidation ahead of election day.