The Saint-François riding in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election features a competitive multi-party contest among incumbent Geneviève Hébert of the Coalition Avenir Québec, Sylvie Tanguay of the Parti Québécois, Jacqueline Belleau of the Quebec Liberal Party, and Mia Fréchette of Québec solidaire. The campaign launched August 27 after the writ drop, leaving limited time for voter shifts before the September 17 candidate nomination deadline. Province-wide polling and riding-specific models from late August show the PQ ahead in vote share, followed by the Liberals, with the CAQ trailing its 2022 result of 42 percent amid broader party declines after the leadership transition. This environment of early uncertainty, fragmented support across four main parties, and the absence of decisive local catalysts has kept trader consensus on individual win probabilities closely clustered, with separation likely to emerge from upcoming debates, turnout patterns in the Estrie region, or movement in provincial party standings.