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icon for Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Nacional de Quebec
Mundo·Canadá

Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Nacional de Quebec

icon for Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Nacional de Quebec
Mundo·Canadá

Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Nacional de Quebec

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier 46%

Charles Paquin 43%

Laurent Bélisle 43%

Guy Veillette 42%

Polymarket
NOVO

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier 46%

Charles Paquin 43%

Laurent Bélisle 43%

Guy Veillette 42%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Élodie Murphy-Gauthier

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier

$0 Vol.

46%

icon for Charles Paquin

Charles Paquin

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Laurent Bélisle

Laurent Bélisle

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Guy Veillette

Guy Veillette

$0 Vol.

42%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**The Laviolette–Saint-Maurice riding features a tight four-way contest ahead of the October 5, 2026 Quebec election, with trader prices reflecting uncertainty among the leading candidates.** Guy Veillette (CAQ), Élodie Murphy-Gauthier (PQ), Charles Paquin (PCQ), and Laurent Bélisle (Liberal) hold the highest implied probabilities, clustered near 42–43.5 percent amid broader provincial volatility following the CAQ’s long tenure in government. The seat, previously held by retiring CAQ MNA Marie-Louise Tardif, shows CAQ and PQ vote shares nearly tied in recent projections (around 30–34 percent each), with PCQ support elevated locally compared to the provincial average. Key factors sustaining the deadlock include strong regional candidate profiles—Veillette’s journalism and constituency experience for the CAQ and Murphy-Gauthier’s health-sector background for the PQ—plus ongoing campaign dynamics after the August 27 writ drop. Further polling shifts, party leader events in the Mauricie region, or late nomination developments before the September 17 deadline could widen gaps before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**The Laviolette–Saint-Maurice riding features a tight four-way contest ahead of the October 5, 2026 Quebec election, with trader prices reflecting uncertainty among the leading candidates.** Guy Veillette (CAQ), Élodie Murphy-Gauthier (PQ), Charles Paquin (PCQ), and Laurent Bélisle (Liberal) hold the highest implied probabilities, clustered near 42–43.5 percent amid broader provincial volatility following the CAQ’s long tenure in government. The seat, previously held by retiring CAQ MNA Marie-Louise Tardif, shows CAQ and PQ vote shares nearly tied in recent projections (around 30–34 percent each), with PCQ support elevated locally compared to the provincial average. Key factors sustaining the deadlock include strong regional candidate profiles—Veillette’s journalism and constituency experience for the CAQ and Murphy-Gauthier’s health-sector background for the PQ—plus ongoing campaign dynamics after the August 27 writ drop. Further polling shifts, party leader events in the Mauricie region, or late nomination developments before the September 17 deadline could widen gaps before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Nacional de Quebec" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Élodie Murphy-Gauthier" at 46%, followed by "Charles Paquin" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Nacional de Quebec" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Nacional de Quebec," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Nacional de Quebec" is "Élodie Murphy-Gauthier" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Charles Paquin" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Nacional de Quebec" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.