**Persistent above-target inflation and the RBA’s hawkish communications are anchoring trader expectations for the November cash rate decision.** With the cash rate at 4.35 percent following earlier 2026 tightening, July CPI showed headline inflation easing to 3.5 percent year-over-year while the trimmed-mean measure held steady at 3.6 percent—still well above the 2–3 percent target. Upside risks from elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, capacity pressures, and pass-through of input costs have prompted senior RBA officials, including Governor Bullock, to signal readiness for further tightening. Market-implied odds of 72.5 percent for no change in November versus 26.7 percent for a 25-basis-point increase reflect the view that any September move would likely complete the near-term adjustment, leaving the November meeting more balanced absent fresh data surprises. Upcoming August CPI and labor-market releases remain key swing factors for the aggregated capital at risk on these outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNo change 73%
25 bps increase 26.7%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$49,741 Vol.
$49,741 Vol.
3 nov 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
73%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 73%
25 bps increase 26.7%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$49,741 Vol.
$49,741 Vol.
3 nov 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,210 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$3,656 Vol.
1%
No change
$27,363 Vol.
73%
25 bps increase
$12,731 Vol.
27%
50+ bps increase
$2,781 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent above-target inflation and the RBA’s hawkish communications are anchoring trader expectations for the November cash rate decision.** With the cash rate at 4.35 percent following earlier 2026 tightening, July CPI showed headline inflation easing to 3.5 percent year-over-year while the trimmed-mean measure held steady at 3.6 percent—still well above the 2–3 percent target. Upside risks from elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, capacity pressures, and pass-through of input costs have prompted senior RBA officials, including Governor Bullock, to signal readiness for further tightening. Market-implied odds of 72.5 percent for no change in November versus 26.7 percent for a 25-basis-point increase reflect the view that any September move would likely complete the near-term adjustment, leaving the November meeting more balanced absent fresh data surprises. Upcoming August CPI and labor-market releases remain key swing factors for the aggregated capital at risk on these outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Volume
$49,741Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent above-target inflation and the RBA’s hawkish communications are anchoring trader expectations for the November cash rate decision.** With the cash rate at 4.35 percent following earlier 2026 tightening, July CPI showed headline inflation easing to 3.5 percent year-over-year while the trimmed-mean measure held steady at 3.6 percent—still well above the 2–3 percent target. Upside risks from elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, capacity pressures, and pass-through of input costs have prompted senior RBA officials, including Governor Bullock, to signal readiness for further tightening. Market-implied odds of 72.5 percent for no change in November versus 26.7 percent for a 25-basis-point increase reflect the view that any September move would likely complete the near-term adjustment, leaving the November meeting more balanced absent fresh data surprises. Upcoming August CPI and labor-market releases remain key swing factors for the aggregated capital at risk on these outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$49,741Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent above-target inflation and the RBA’s hawkish communications are anchoring trader expectations for the November cash rate decision.** With the cash rate at 4.35 percent following earlier 2026 tightening, July CPI showed headline inflation easing to 3.5 percent year-over-year while the trimmed-mean measure held steady at 3.6 percent—still well above the 2–3 percent target. Upside risks from elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, capacity pressures, and pass-through of input costs have prompted senior RBA officials, including Governor Bullock, to signal readiness for further tightening. Market-implied odds of 72.5 percent for no change in November versus 26.7 percent for a 25-basis-point increase reflect the view that any September move would likely complete the near-term adjustment, leaving the November meeting more balanced absent fresh data surprises. Upcoming August CPI and labor-market releases remain key swing factors for the aggregated capital at risk on these outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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