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Elections·Referendum

California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition

icon for California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition
Elections·Referendum

California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

46% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
46% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).Recent legislative agreement placed the $11.25 billion Veterans and Affordable Housing Bond Act on the November 2026 ballot, directing funds toward construction, rehabilitation, preservation, and veteran homeownership programs. Trader sentiment shows "No" narrowly ahead at 52.5 percent amid California's persistent housing shortage and competing priorities over state general obligation debt repayment through future revenues. Democratic leaders and housing advocates highlight production shortfalls and job creation, while Republican opposition and taxpayer groups emphasize fiscal restraint and past bond performance. Competitive balance stems from high voter concern over affordability paired with scrutiny of borrowing costs. Upcoming polls, endorsements from local governments, campaign spending patterns, or shifts in economic conditions before election day could adjust implied probabilities.

Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).Recent legislative agreement placed the $11.25 billion Veterans and Affordable Housing Bond Act on the November 2026 ballot, directing funds toward construction, rehabilitation, preservation, and veteran homeownership programs. Trader sentiment shows "No" narrowly ahead at 52.5 percent amid California's persistent housing shortage and competing priorities over state general obligation debt repayment through future revenues. Democratic leaders and housing advocates highlight production shortfalls and job creation, while Republican opposition and taxpayer groups emphasize fiscal restraint and past bond performance. Competitive balance stems from high voter concern over affordability paired with scrutiny of borrowing costs. Upcoming polls, endorsements from local governments, campaign spending patterns, or shifts in economic conditions before election day could adjust implied probabilities.

Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 46% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 46¢, the market collectively assigns a 46% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition" is 46% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 46% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.