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icon for Proposta de Vínculo Habitacional Acessível da Califórnia
Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Proposta de Vínculo Habitacional Acessível da Califórnia

icon for Proposta de Vínculo Habitacional Acessível da Califórnia
Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Proposta de Vínculo Habitacional Acessível da Califórnia

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

nov 3

Sim

43% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

43% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).Bipartisan legislative approval of Senate Bill 417 in June 2026, signed by Governor Newsom, placed the $11.25 billion Veterans and Affordable Housing Bond Act on the November ballot as Proposition 1, directly shaping trader consensus around a modest Yes lead. The measure would replenish exhausted state programs for multifamily construction, homeownership assistance, permanent supportive housing, and veteran initiatives, drawing endorsements from housing coalitions and the administration. With roughly three months until voters decide by simple majority, implied probabilities near 57% reflect both the structured path to the ballot and historical patterns of mixed support for large general obligation bonds amid competing fiscal priorities and ballot measures. No major opposition campaigns have yet shifted the balance significantly.

Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,182
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).Bipartisan legislative approval of Senate Bill 417 in June 2026, signed by Governor Newsom, placed the $11.25 billion Veterans and Affordable Housing Bond Act on the November ballot as Proposition 1, directly shaping trader consensus around a modest Yes lead. The measure would replenish exhausted state programs for multifamily construction, homeownership assistance, permanent supportive housing, and veteran initiatives, drawing endorsements from housing coalitions and the administration. With roughly three months until voters decide by simple majority, implied probabilities near 57% reflect both the structured path to the ballot and historical patterns of mixed support for large general obligation bonds amid competing fiscal priorities and ballot measures. No major opposition campaigns have yet shifted the balance significantly.

Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,182
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Proposta de Vínculo Habitacional Acessível da Califórnia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Proposta de Empréstimo para Habitação Acessível na Califórnia" at 60%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Proposta de Vínculo Habitacional Acessível da Califórnia" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Proposta de Vínculo Habitacional Acessível da Califórnia," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Proposta de Vínculo Habitacional Acessível da Califórnia" is "Proposta de Empréstimo para Habitação Acessível na Califórnia" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Proposta de Vínculo Habitacional Acessível da Califórnia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.