California voters will decide Proposition 43 on November 3, 2026, which would amend the state constitution to impose a two-thirds voter approval requirement on citizen-initiated local special taxes and close related loopholes from prior court rulings. The measure emerged from legislative negotiations tied to other ballot deals rather than a broad grassroots push. With roughly three months until the election, no major polling shifts or high-profile endorsements have emerged to alter baseline expectations. Trader pricing at 64.5% for rejection aligns with California’s partisan composition and repeated voter resistance to new restrictions on local revenue tools favored by governments, unions, and service providers. Absent late developments such as unusual turnout patterns or coordinated campaigns, the implied probability reflects standard historical patterns for tax-related constitutional changes in the state.