Arizona's 3rd congressional district carries a D+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, including Yassamin Ansari's 70.9% victory in 2024. The incumbent secured the Democratic nomination without opposition in the July 2026 primary, while Republican efforts produced only write-in candidacies with negligible support and no ballot-qualified major-party challenger. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. These structural factors—partisan composition, fundraising disparity, and absence of competitive opposition—underpin trader consensus at 98% for the Democratic Party. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow, such as an unforeseen late scandal, candidate withdrawal, or extreme turnout shift, though none currently register in available data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAZ-03 Vencedor da eleição da casa
AZ-03 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$50,632 Vol.
$50,632 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
98%
Partido Republicano
1%
$50,632 Vol.
$50,632 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$31,713 Vol.
98%
Partido Republicano
$18,919 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 3rd congressional district carries a D+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, including Yassamin Ansari's 70.9% victory in 2024. The incumbent secured the Democratic nomination without opposition in the July 2026 primary, while Republican efforts produced only write-in candidacies with negligible support and no ballot-qualified major-party challenger. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. These structural factors—partisan composition, fundraising disparity, and absence of competitive opposition—underpin trader consensus at 98% for the Democratic Party. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow, such as an unforeseen late scandal, candidate withdrawal, or extreme turnout shift, though none currently register in available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$50,632Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 3rd congressional district carries a D+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, including Yassamin Ansari's 70.9% victory in 2024. The incumbent secured the Democratic nomination without opposition in the July 2026 primary, while Republican efforts produced only write-in candidacies with negligible support and no ballot-qualified major-party challenger. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. These structural factors—partisan composition, fundraising disparity, and absence of competitive opposition—underpin trader consensus at 98% for the Democratic Party. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow, such as an unforeseen late scandal, candidate withdrawal, or extreme turnout shift, though none currently register in available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,632Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 3rd congressional district carries a D+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, including Yassamin Ansari's 70.9% victory in 2024. The incumbent secured the Democratic nomination without opposition in the July 2026 primary, while Republican efforts produced only write-in candidacies with negligible support and no ballot-qualified major-party challenger. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. These structural factors—partisan composition, fundraising disparity, and absence of competitive opposition—underpin trader consensus at 98% for the Democratic Party. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow, such as an unforeseen late scandal, candidate withdrawal, or extreme turnout shift, though none currently register in available data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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