Québec solidaire maintains entrenched support in several Montreal-area ridings and a handful elsewhere, where incumbents and localized voter bases have consistently delivered seats in prior cycles despite the party’s province-wide polling decline to roughly 8–10 percent. Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada place QS in the 3–11 range, with multiple districts rated safe or leaning for the party even amid a broader shift toward the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. The October 5 election timeline leaves room for campaign developments, yet the concentration of QS support in winnable districts underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability. Late swings in turnout or unexpected consolidation of the left-wing vote remain the main variables that could narrow outcomes, though current evidence indicates limited risk of a complete seat loss.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
95% chance
NOVO
NOVO
5 out 2026
Sim
95% chance
NOVO
NOVO
5 out 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire maintains entrenched support in several Montreal-area ridings and a handful elsewhere, where incumbents and localized voter bases have consistently delivered seats in prior cycles despite the party’s province-wide polling decline to roughly 8–10 percent. Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada place QS in the 3–11 range, with multiple districts rated safe or leaning for the party even amid a broader shift toward the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. The October 5 election timeline leaves room for campaign developments, yet the concentration of QS support in winnable districts underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability. Late swings in turnout or unexpected consolidation of the left-wing vote remain the main variables that could narrow outcomes, though current evidence indicates limited risk of a complete seat loss.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$279Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire maintains entrenched support in several Montreal-area ridings and a handful elsewhere, where incumbents and localized voter bases have consistently delivered seats in prior cycles despite the party’s province-wide polling decline to roughly 8–10 percent. Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada place QS in the 3–11 range, with multiple districts rated safe or leaning for the party even amid a broader shift toward the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. The October 5 election timeline leaves room for campaign developments, yet the concentration of QS support in winnable districts underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability. Late swings in turnout or unexpected consolidation of the left-wing vote remain the main variables that could narrow outcomes, though current evidence indicates limited risk of a complete seat loss.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$279Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Québec solidaire maintains entrenched support in several Montreal-area ridings and a handful elsewhere, where incumbents and localized voter bases have consistently delivered seats in prior cycles despite the party’s province-wide polling decline to roughly 8–10 percent. Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada place QS in the 3–11 range, with multiple districts rated safe or leaning for the party even amid a broader shift toward the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. The October 5 election timeline leaves room for campaign developments, yet the concentration of QS support in winnable districts underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability. Late swings in turnout or unexpected consolidation of the left-wing vote remain the main variables that could narrow outcomes, though current evidence indicates limited risk of a complete seat loss.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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