The closely contested referendum on resuming EU accession talks, with final polls showing a near tie between yes and no camps amid roughly 8% undecided voters, has spurred intensive last-minute mobilization by both sides ahead of the August 29 vote. Iceland’s recent parliamentary and presidential elections recorded turnouts above 80%, establishing a high baseline that traders appear to weigh against factors such as regional divides (stronger yes support in the capital area), fisheries sensitivities, and the two-step process separating this ballot from any eventual membership decision. The compressed campaign timeline following the May parliamentary approval and forward shift from 2027 has sustained broad public attention without clear signals of voter fatigue. This combination keeps the distribution of turnout probabilities tightly clustered across the 65–80% range, as modest shifts in participation among undecided or rural voters could meaningfully affect the outcome.