Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains tightly contested due to near-even polling that has fluctuated within a few points in recent weeks, with Gallup showing No at 51.6% and Maskina indicating Yes at 51.3% among decided voters. The primary drivers are competing concerns over fisheries sovereignty and national independence against potential gains in economic stability, lower interest rates, and security amid the Ukraine conflict and U.S. policy shifts. High early voting and a small electorate amplify the impact of turnout and undecided voters, sustaining expectations of a sub-3% or 3-6% margin in trader consensus while limiting separation until results clarify the final split.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNão <3% 42%
Sim 3–6% 35%
Sim <3% 32%
Não 12–15% 26%
NOVO
NOVO
29 ago 2026
Sim 15%+
4%
Sim 12–15%
9%
Sim 9–12%
1%
Sim 6–9%
7%
Sim 3–6%
30%
Sim <3%
38%
Não <3%
47%
Não 3–6%
15%
Não 6–9%
6%
Não 9–12%
15%
Não 12–15%
26%
Não 15%+
17%
Não <3% 42%
Sim 3–6% 35%
Sim <3% 32%
Não 12–15% 26%
NOVO
NOVO
29 ago 2026
Sim 15%+
$108 Vol.
4%
Sim 12–15%
$146 Vol.
9%
Sim 9–12%
$21 Vol.
1%
Sim 6–9%
$11 Vol.
7%
Sim 3–6%
$47 Vol.
30%
Sim <3%
$64 Vol.
38%
Não <3%
$43 Vol.
47%
Não 3–6%
$31 Vol.
15%
Não 6–9%
$24 Vol.
6%
Não 9–12%
$22 Vol.
15%
Não 12–15%
$86 Vol.
26%
Não 15%+
$16 Vol.
17%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains tightly contested due to near-even polling that has fluctuated within a few points in recent weeks, with Gallup showing No at 51.6% and Maskina indicating Yes at 51.3% among decided voters. The primary drivers are competing concerns over fisheries sovereignty and national independence against potential gains in economic stability, lower interest rates, and security amid the Ukraine conflict and U.S. policy shifts. High early voting and a small electorate amplify the impact of turnout and undecided voters, sustaining expectations of a sub-3% or 3-6% margin in trader consensus while limiting separation until results clarify the final split.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$620Data de Término
29 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains tightly contested due to near-even polling that has fluctuated within a few points in recent weeks, with Gallup showing No at 51.6% and Maskina indicating Yes at 51.3% among decided voters. The primary drivers are competing concerns over fisheries sovereignty and national independence against potential gains in economic stability, lower interest rates, and security amid the Ukraine conflict and U.S. policy shifts. High early voting and a small electorate amplify the impact of turnout and undecided voters, sustaining expectations of a sub-3% or 3-6% margin in trader consensus while limiting separation until results clarify the final split.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$620Data de Término
29 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains tightly contested due to near-even polling that has fluctuated within a few points in recent weeks, with Gallup showing No at 51.6% and Maskina indicating Yes at 51.3% among decided voters. The primary drivers are competing concerns over fisheries sovereignty and national independence against potential gains in economic stability, lower interest rates, and security amid the Ukraine conflict and U.S. policy shifts. High early voting and a small electorate amplify the impact of turnout and undecided voters, sustaining expectations of a sub-3% or 3-6% margin in trader consensus while limiting separation until results clarify the final split.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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