Recent polling averages for the October 27, 2026, Knesset election place Yisrael Beiteinu in the 7–9 seat range, translating to roughly 6–7.5% of the vote and aligning with the market’s leading 6–7% outcome. Avigdor Lieberman’s party has maintained this band through September surveys by consolidating support among secular and Russian-speaking voters critical of Haredi draft exemptions and the current coalition’s security record. The early September slate announcement, featuring bereaved October 7 families and former Likud figures, reinforced its opposition positioning without shifting the numbers materially. Surplus-vote pacts with centrist lists and competition from other right-wing parties have capped upside potential, while the 3.25% threshold keeps downside risk contained. Traders appear to view these stable mid-single-digit results as the most probable outcome absent major late-campaign realignments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado6-7% 34%
5-6% 34%
<5% 22%
7-8% 20%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
<5%
22%
5-6%
34%
6-7%
40%
7-8%
26%
8%+
18%
6-7% 34%
5-6% 34%
<5% 22%
7-8% 20%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
<5%
$810 Vol.
22%
5-6%
$119 Vol.
34%
6-7%
$208 Vol.
40%
7-8%
$132 Vol.
26%
8%+
$47 Vol.
18%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages for the October 27, 2026, Knesset election place Yisrael Beiteinu in the 7–9 seat range, translating to roughly 6–7.5% of the vote and aligning with the market’s leading 6–7% outcome. Avigdor Lieberman’s party has maintained this band through September surveys by consolidating support among secular and Russian-speaking voters critical of Haredi draft exemptions and the current coalition’s security record. The early September slate announcement, featuring bereaved October 7 families and former Likud figures, reinforced its opposition positioning without shifting the numbers materially. Surplus-vote pacts with centrist lists and competition from other right-wing parties have capped upside potential, while the 3.25% threshold keeps downside risk contained. Traders appear to view these stable mid-single-digit results as the most probable outcome absent major late-campaign realignments.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Mercado Aberto: Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,316Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages for the October 27, 2026, Knesset election place Yisrael Beiteinu in the 7–9 seat range, translating to roughly 6–7.5% of the vote and aligning with the market’s leading 6–7% outcome. Avigdor Lieberman’s party has maintained this band through September surveys by consolidating support among secular and Russian-speaking voters critical of Haredi draft exemptions and the current coalition’s security record. The early September slate announcement, featuring bereaved October 7 families and former Likud figures, reinforced its opposition positioning without shifting the numbers materially. Surplus-vote pacts with centrist lists and competition from other right-wing parties have capped upside potential, while the 3.25% threshold keeps downside risk contained. Traders appear to view these stable mid-single-digit results as the most probable outcome absent major late-campaign realignments.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$1,316Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages for the October 27, 2026, Knesset election place Yisrael Beiteinu in the 7–9 seat range, translating to roughly 6–7.5% of the vote and aligning with the market’s leading 6–7% outcome. Avigdor Lieberman’s party has maintained this band through September surveys by consolidating support among secular and Russian-speaking voters critical of Haredi draft exemptions and the current coalition’s security record. The early September slate announcement, featuring bereaved October 7 families and former Likud figures, reinforced its opposition positioning without shifting the numbers materially. Surplus-vote pacts with centrist lists and competition from other right-wing parties have capped upside potential, while the 3.25% threshold keeps downside risk contained. Traders appear to view these stable mid-single-digit results as the most probable outcome absent major late-campaign realignments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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