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icon for Vencedor da eleição do Secretário de Estado de Nevada
Política·MIDTERMS

Vencedor da eleição do Secretário de Estado de Nevada

icon for Vencedor da eleição do Secretário de Estado de Nevada
Política·MIDTERMS

Vencedor da eleição do Secretário de Estado de Nevada

Polymarket
NOVO
Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Cisco Aguilar (D)

Cisco Aguilar (D)

$771 Vol.

86%

icon for Jim Marchant (R)

Jim Marchant (R)

$241 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Nevada Secretary of State election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.Incumbent Cisco Aguilar holds a strong position in the Nevada Secretary of State race due to his 2022 narrow victory in the rematch against Republican Jim Marchant, combined with substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $1 million compared to Marchant’s minimal resources. Aguilar’s uncontested Democratic primary and the Republican primary outcome in June, where Marchant prevailed narrowly amid divided opposition, have reinforced trader views of limited GOP momentum. Recent campaign finance disclosures and reporting on Marchant’s proposals for major voting system changes, including expanded paper ballots and voter reregistration, highlight resource and positioning gaps ahead of the November 3 general election. Minor-party candidates and the “other” option reflect low expected viability in this statewide contest.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Nevada Secretary of State election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Nevada Secretary of State election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Volume
$1,012
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 1:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Nevada Secretary of State election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.Incumbent Cisco Aguilar holds a strong position in the Nevada Secretary of State race due to his 2022 narrow victory in the rematch against Republican Jim Marchant, combined with substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $1 million compared to Marchant’s minimal resources. Aguilar’s uncontested Democratic primary and the Republican primary outcome in June, where Marchant prevailed narrowly amid divided opposition, have reinforced trader views of limited GOP momentum. Recent campaign finance disclosures and reporting on Marchant’s proposals for major voting system changes, including expanded paper ballots and voter reregistration, highlight resource and positioning gaps ahead of the November 3 general election. Minor-party candidates and the “other” option reflect low expected viability in this statewide contest.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Nevada Secretary of State election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Nevada Secretary of State election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Volume
$1,012
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 1:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição do Secretário de Estado de Nevada" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cisco Aguilar (D)" at 86%, followed by "Jim Marchant (R)" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da eleição do Secretário de Estado de Nevada" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição do Secretário de Estado de Nevada," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição do Secretário de Estado de Nevada" is "Cisco Aguilar (D)" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jim Marchant (R)" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição do Secretário de Estado de Nevada" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.