Incumbent Republican Larry Rhoden secured his party's nomination for South Dakota governor in a July 28, 2026, runoff primary, defeating challenger Toby Doeden with roughly 71 percent of the vote after no candidate reached the required threshold in the initial June contest. Rhoden, who took office in early 2025 following Kristi Noem's resignation to join the Trump administration, faces Democrat Dan Ahlers in the November 3 general election. South Dakota's long Republican tilt in statewide races, including no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1974, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current 94.8 percent Republican implied probability. A major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and primary results show limited precedent for such shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$17,782 Vol.
$17,782 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
95%
Democrata
5%
$17,782 Vol.
$17,782 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$6,723 Vol.
95%
Democrata
$11,058 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Larry Rhoden secured his party's nomination for South Dakota governor in a July 28, 2026, runoff primary, defeating challenger Toby Doeden with roughly 71 percent of the vote after no candidate reached the required threshold in the initial June contest. Rhoden, who took office in early 2025 following Kristi Noem's resignation to join the Trump administration, faces Democrat Dan Ahlers in the November 3 general election. South Dakota's long Republican tilt in statewide races, including no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1974, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current 94.8 percent Republican implied probability. A major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and primary results show limited precedent for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$17,782Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Larry Rhoden secured his party's nomination for South Dakota governor in a July 28, 2026, runoff primary, defeating challenger Toby Doeden with roughly 71 percent of the vote after no candidate reached the required threshold in the initial June contest. Rhoden, who took office in early 2025 following Kristi Noem's resignation to join the Trump administration, faces Democrat Dan Ahlers in the November 3 general election. South Dakota's long Republican tilt in statewide races, including no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1974, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current 94.8 percent Republican implied probability. A major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and primary results show limited precedent for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$17,782Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Larry Rhoden secured his party's nomination for South Dakota governor in a July 28, 2026, runoff primary, defeating challenger Toby Doeden with roughly 71 percent of the vote after no candidate reached the required threshold in the initial June contest. Rhoden, who took office in early 2025 following Kristi Noem's resignation to join the Trump administration, faces Democrat Dan Ahlers in the November 3 general election. South Dakota's long Republican tilt in statewide races, including no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1974, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current 94.8 percent Republican implied probability. A major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and primary results show limited precedent for such shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions