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icon for Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 2º Lugar
Política·Brasil

Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 2º Lugar

icon for Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 2º Lugar
Política·Brasil

Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 2º Lugar

Pimenta 46%

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas 46%

Frederico Antunes 44%

Marcel Van Hattem 44%

Polymarket
NOVO

Pimenta 46%

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas 46%

Frederico Antunes 44%

Marcel Van Hattem 44%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Pimenta

Pimenta

$0 Vol.

46%

icon for Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

$0 Vol.

46%

icon for Frederico Antunes

Frederico Antunes

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Marcel Van Hattem

Marcel Van Hattem

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Luciano do MLB

Luciano do MLB

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Ric Jones

Ric Jones

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Regis Ethur

Regis Ethur

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Tania Peres

Tania Peres

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Sanderson

Sanderson

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for Rigotto

Rigotto

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Milton Cardoso

Milton Cardoso

$0 Vol.

27%

icon for Manuela D'Ávila

Manuela D'Ávila

$0 Vol.

26%

icon for Renato Jaguarão

Renato Jaguarão

$0 Vol.

24%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The open Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for two seats features a fragmented field of more than a dozen declared candidates after incumbents Luis Carlos Heinze and Paulo Paim declined to run, producing tight trader consensus around second-place probabilities. Recent July 2026 surveys from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas show Manuela d’Ávila, Marcel van Hattem, Germano Rigotto, Paulo Pimenta, and Ubiratan Sanderson clustered in technical ties or narrow leads in the low-to-mid teens, with high undecided shares and rejection rates limiting any single frontrunner. This early-stage dispersion, combined with competing party strategies and limited differentiation on state issues, sustains balanced implied probabilities. Later polling releases, formal alliances, or campaign events before the October 4 vote could consolidate support and widen gaps among contenders.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The open Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for two seats features a fragmented field of more than a dozen declared candidates after incumbents Luis Carlos Heinze and Paulo Paim declined to run, producing tight trader consensus around second-place probabilities. Recent July 2026 surveys from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas show Manuela d’Ávila, Marcel van Hattem, Germano Rigotto, Paulo Pimenta, and Ubiratan Sanderson clustered in technical ties or narrow leads in the low-to-mid teens, with high undecided shares and rejection rates limiting any single frontrunner. This early-stage dispersion, combined with competing party strategies and limited differentiation on state issues, sustains balanced implied probabilities. Later polling releases, formal alliances, or campaign events before the October 4 vote could consolidate support and widen gaps among contenders.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 2º Lugar" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pimenta" at 46%, followed by "Daniela Mulheres Socialistas" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 2º Lugar" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 2º Lugar," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 2º Lugar" is "Pimenta" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Daniela Mulheres Socialistas" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 2º Lugar" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.