Florida's 22nd congressional district Republican primary, set for August 18, features a tight contest among self-funded candidates Michael Carbonara, Belinda Keiser, and Casey Askar, each investing millions amid redistricting that created an open seat. Recent polling shows the top three in a statistical tie with over 40 percent of likely Republican voters undecided, while Club for Growth's endorsement of Carbonara and its ads targeting Askar highlight efforts to consolidate conservative support. Absence of a Trump endorsement and negative reporting on frontrunners sustain uncertainty, with voter turnout, final ad spending, and any late shifts among undecideds positioned to determine separation before primary resolution.