Skip to main content
icon for FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

icon for FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

Ben Butler 41.4%

Thomas Chalifoux 28%

Dan Green 14%

Jorge Martinez 5.7%

Polymarket

$77,299 Vol.

Ben Butler 41.4%

Thomas Chalifoux 28%

Dan Green 14%

Jorge Martinez 5.7%

Polymarket

$77,299 Vol.

icon for Ben Butler

Ben Butler

$9,675 Vol.

41%

icon for Thomas Chalifoux

Thomas Chalifoux

$20,633 Vol.

28%

icon for Dan Green

Dan Green

$8,912 Vol.

14%

icon for Jorge Martinez

Jorge Martinez

$9,084 Vol.

6%

icon for Justin Story

Justin Story

$11,131 Vol.

1%

icon for Jorge Malavet

Jorge Malavet

$4,171 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marcus Carter

Marcus Carter

$2,652 Vol.

<1%

icon for Steve Rance

Steve Rance

$1,390 Vol.

<1%

icon for Howard Steven Rance

Howard Steven Rance

$9,866 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The upcoming August 18 primary in Florida’s redrawn 9th Congressional District has drawn a crowded Republican field seeking the nomination to challenge Democratic incumbent Darren Soto in a seat shifted toward GOP-leaning territory. Trader consensus places Ben Butler in front, reflecting late momentum from agricultural endorsements and name recognition gains, while Thomas Chalifoux trails despite substantial fundraising. A recent Victory Insights poll showed the top contenders clustered closely with over 40 percent of likely voters undecided, underscoring volatility in the final days. Dan Green and Jorge Martinez occupy the next tier amid limited polling clarity, with the remainder of the field registering minimal support. The race’s resolution hinges on turnout among Republican primary voters in the brief window before ballots close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$77,299
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The upcoming August 18 primary in Florida’s redrawn 9th Congressional District has drawn a crowded Republican field seeking the nomination to challenge Democratic incumbent Darren Soto in a seat shifted toward GOP-leaning territory. Trader consensus places Ben Butler in front, reflecting late momentum from agricultural endorsements and name recognition gains, while Thomas Chalifoux trails despite substantial fundraising. A recent Victory Insights poll showed the top contenders clustered closely with over 40 percent of likely voters undecided, underscoring volatility in the final days. Dan Green and Jorge Martinez occupy the next tier amid limited polling clarity, with the remainder of the field registering minimal support. The race’s resolution hinges on turnout among Republican primary voters in the brief window before ballots close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$77,299
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ben Butler" at 41%, followed by "Thomas Chalifoux" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" has generated $77.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Ben Butler" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Thomas Chalifoux" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.