Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in Virginia's 2026 Senate race, with recent polls showing him ahead by double digits against Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Virginia's partisan lean, Warner's long tenure and fundraising edge, and broad nonpartisan forecasts rating the seat as safe or solid Democratic all reinforce trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. The November 3 general election remains months away, however, leaving room for shifts from major national political developments, candidate health events, or unforeseen campaign controversies that could narrow margins in this battleground state.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$16,798 Vol.
$16,798 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrata
95%
Republicano
5%
$16,798 Vol.
$16,798 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrata
$10,075 Vol.
95%
Republicano
$6,723 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in Virginia's 2026 Senate race, with recent polls showing him ahead by double digits against Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Virginia's partisan lean, Warner's long tenure and fundraising edge, and broad nonpartisan forecasts rating the seat as safe or solid Democratic all reinforce trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. The November 3 general election remains months away, however, leaving room for shifts from major national political developments, candidate health events, or unforeseen campaign controversies that could narrow margins in this battleground state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$16,798Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in Virginia's 2026 Senate race, with recent polls showing him ahead by double digits against Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Virginia's partisan lean, Warner's long tenure and fundraising edge, and broad nonpartisan forecasts rating the seat as safe or solid Democratic all reinforce trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. The November 3 general election remains months away, however, leaving room for shifts from major national political developments, candidate health events, or unforeseen campaign controversies that could narrow margins in this battleground state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$16,798Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in Virginia's 2026 Senate race, with recent polls showing him ahead by double digits against Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Virginia's partisan lean, Warner's long tenure and fundraising edge, and broad nonpartisan forecasts rating the seat as safe or solid Democratic all reinforce trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. The November 3 general election remains months away, however, leaving room for shifts from major national political developments, candidate health events, or unforeseen campaign controversies that could narrow margins in this battleground state.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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