Michigan voters face an automatic ballot question in the November 2026 general election on convening a constitutional convention under Article XII, Section 3 of the state constitution, recurring every 16 years. Historical precedent strongly supports the current 95% implied probability for rejection, as voters turned down similar proposals in 1978, 1994, and 2010 by wide margins exceeding two-thirds. No recent legislative actions, polling surges, or organized campaigns have emerged to build momentum for a full rewrite, despite occasional discussion of targeted issues such as term limits or redistricting. The "No" consensus among traders reflects this pattern of voter caution toward broad structural change. Late developments like a major bipartisan push or unexpected crisis could still shift odds before election day.