Montana's solidly Republican electorate and the party's unified backing for Kurt Alme as the likely nominee have positioned Republicans as the clear favorite in the 2026 Senate race. Alme, the former U.S. attorney endorsed by retiring Sen. Steve Daines and President Trump after Daines withdrew just before the March filing deadline, faces only minor primary opposition ahead of the June 2 vote. Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president drawing support from some moderates previously aligned with former Sen. Jon Tester, polls in the low 40s at best against Alme but trails by double digits in recent surveys. Democratic candidates including Reilly Neill confront structural headwinds in a state without a recent non-Tester statewide victory, leaving limited room for crossover in the November general election. Trader consensus aligns with these partisan dynamics and polling margins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRepublicano 78%
Independente 16.1%
Democrata 2.2%
$72,988 Vol.
$72,988 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
78%
Independente
16%
Democrata
2%
Republicano 78%
Independente 16.1%
Democrata 2.2%
$72,988 Vol.
$72,988 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$37,499 Vol.
78%
Independente
$1,575 Vol.
16%
Democrata
$33,914 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's solidly Republican electorate and the party's unified backing for Kurt Alme as the likely nominee have positioned Republicans as the clear favorite in the 2026 Senate race. Alme, the former U.S. attorney endorsed by retiring Sen. Steve Daines and President Trump after Daines withdrew just before the March filing deadline, faces only minor primary opposition ahead of the June 2 vote. Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president drawing support from some moderates previously aligned with former Sen. Jon Tester, polls in the low 40s at best against Alme but trails by double digits in recent surveys. Democratic candidates including Reilly Neill confront structural headwinds in a state without a recent non-Tester statewide victory, leaving limited room for crossover in the November general election. Trader consensus aligns with these partisan dynamics and polling margins.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$72,988Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's solidly Republican electorate and the party's unified backing for Kurt Alme as the likely nominee have positioned Republicans as the clear favorite in the 2026 Senate race. Alme, the former U.S. attorney endorsed by retiring Sen. Steve Daines and President Trump after Daines withdrew just before the March filing deadline, faces only minor primary opposition ahead of the June 2 vote. Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president drawing support from some moderates previously aligned with former Sen. Jon Tester, polls in the low 40s at best against Alme but trails by double digits in recent surveys. Democratic candidates including Reilly Neill confront structural headwinds in a state without a recent non-Tester statewide victory, leaving limited room for crossover in the November general election. Trader consensus aligns with these partisan dynamics and polling margins.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$72,988Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana's solidly Republican electorate and the party's unified backing for Kurt Alme as the likely nominee have positioned Republicans as the clear favorite in the 2026 Senate race. Alme, the former U.S. attorney endorsed by retiring Sen. Steve Daines and President Trump after Daines withdrew just before the March filing deadline, faces only minor primary opposition ahead of the June 2 vote. Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president drawing support from some moderates previously aligned with former Sen. Jon Tester, polls in the low 40s at best against Alme but trails by double digits in recent surveys. Democratic candidates including Reilly Neill confront structural headwinds in a state without a recent non-Tester statewide victory, leaving limited room for crossover in the November general election. Trader consensus aligns with these partisan dynamics and polling margins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions