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icon for Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Política·Recompensas 20, 4,5, 50

Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?

icon for Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Política·Recompensas 20, 4,5, 50

Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 68%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 18%

1st Round Outright Winner 13%

Other 5%

Polymarket
NOVO

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 68%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 18%

1st Round Outright Winner 13%

Other 5%

Polymarket
NOVO

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro

$154 Vol.

68%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro

$463 Vol.

18%

1st Round Outright Winner

$166 Vol.

13%

Other

$39 Vol.

5%

Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia

$341 Vol.

2%

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polling shows Iván Cepeda leading with 35-44 percent support while Abelardo de la Espriella holds a narrow edge over Paloma Valencia for second place, positioning the two to advance from the May 31 first round. Traders assign high probability to this pairing because conservative voters remain split between de la Espriella’s outsider appeal and Valencia’s Democratic Center backing, with no candidate approaching the 50 percent threshold needed for outright victory. Recent developments, including de la Espriella’s controversial remarks that highlighted divisions on gender issues, have not yet shifted aggregate support enough to favor Valencia. Upcoming debates and final voter consolidation in the remaining two weeks could still alter the outcome before the June 21 runoff.

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.

If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$1,162
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polling shows Iván Cepeda leading with 35-44 percent support while Abelardo de la Espriella holds a narrow edge over Paloma Valencia for second place, positioning the two to advance from the May 31 first round. Traders assign high probability to this pairing because conservative voters remain split between de la Espriella’s outsider appeal and Valencia’s Democratic Center backing, with no candidate approaching the 50 percent threshold needed for outright victory. Recent developments, including de la Espriella’s controversial remarks that highlighted divisions on gender issues, have not yet shifted aggregate support enough to favor Valencia. Upcoming debates and final voter consolidation in the remaining two weeks could still alter the outcome before the June 21 runoff.

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.

If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$1,162
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro" at 68%, followed by "Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" is "Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.