Recent polling for Colombia’s May 31 presidential first round shows a fragmented field, with leading candidate Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact at roughly 35 to 44 percent and nearest rivals Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia trailing between 17 and 27 percent. No contender approaches the constitutional threshold of more than 50 percent plus one vote required for an outright victory, sustaining expectations of a June 21 runoff. This multi-candidate dynamic and the absence of any dominant front-runner have produced a trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent implied probability assigned to no outright first-round winner.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAlgum candidato presidencial vencerá de imediato no primeiro turno das eleições da Colômbia?
Sim
$47,000 Vol.
$47,000 Vol.
Sim
$47,000 Vol.
$47,000 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2025, 1:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...Recent polling for Colombia’s May 31 presidential first round shows a fragmented field, with leading candidate Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact at roughly 35 to 44 percent and nearest rivals Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia trailing between 17 and 27 percent. No contender approaches the constitutional threshold of more than 50 percent plus one vote required for an outright victory, sustaining expectations of a June 21 runoff. This multi-candidate dynamic and the absence of any dominant front-runner have produced a trader consensus reflected in the 94.5 percent implied probability assigned to no outright first-round winner.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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