The MO-01 Democratic primary remains tightly contested ahead of the August 4 vote, with trader pricing reflecting uncertainty over the final margin between incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell and challenger Cori Bush. The race features a rematch of their 2024 contest, renewed focus on differences over Israel policy and local St. Louis issues such as immigration and tornado recovery funding, plus endorsements including recent support for Bell from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. A July 24 candidate debate on St. Louis Public Radio highlighted campaign finance and foreign policy contrasts without producing a clear shift in positioning. Minor candidates further complicate margin projections, while polling averages show the top two contenders statistically close. Late developments in turnout among key Democratic blocs or additional outside spending could widen or narrow the final gap before primary day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoBush 16%+ 43%
Bush 12–16% 43%
Bush 8–12% 43%
Bush 4–8% 43%
NOVO
NOVO
4 ago 2026
Bush 16%+
43%
Bush 12–16%
43%
Bush 8–12%
43%
Bush 4–8%
43%
Bush <4%
43%
Bell <4%
43%
Bell 4–8%
43%
Bell 8–12%
43%
Bell 12–16%
43%
Bell 16%+
43%
Bush 16%+ 43%
Bush 12–16% 43%
Bush 8–12% 43%
Bush 4–8% 43%
NOVO
NOVO
4 ago 2026
Bush 16%+
$0 Vol.
43%
Bush 12–16%
$0 Vol.
43%
Bush 8–12%
$0 Vol.
43%
Bush 4–8%
$0 Vol.
43%
Bush <4%
$0 Vol.
43%
Bell <4%
$0 Vol.
43%
Bell 4–8%
$0 Vol.
43%
Bell 8–12%
$0 Vol.
43%
Bell 12–16%
$0 Vol.
43%
Bell 16%+
$0 Vol.
43%
The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The MO-01 Democratic primary remains tightly contested ahead of the August 4 vote, with trader pricing reflecting uncertainty over the final margin between incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell and challenger Cori Bush. The race features a rematch of their 2024 contest, renewed focus on differences over Israel policy and local St. Louis issues such as immigration and tornado recovery funding, plus endorsements including recent support for Bell from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. A July 24 candidate debate on St. Louis Public Radio highlighted campaign finance and foreign policy contrasts without producing a clear shift in positioning. Minor candidates further complicate margin projections, while polling averages show the top two contenders statistically close. Late developments in turnout among key Democratic blocs or additional outside spending could widen or narrow the final gap before primary day.
The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 26, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
4 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 26, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The MO-01 Democratic primary remains tightly contested ahead of the August 4 vote, with trader pricing reflecting uncertainty over the final margin between incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell and challenger Cori Bush. The race features a rematch of their 2024 contest, renewed focus on differences over Israel policy and local St. Louis issues such as immigration and tornado recovery funding, plus endorsements including recent support for Bell from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. A July 24 candidate debate on St. Louis Public Radio highlighted campaign finance and foreign policy contrasts without producing a clear shift in positioning. Minor candidates further complicate margin projections, while polling averages show the top two contenders statistically close. Late developments in turnout among key Democratic blocs or additional outside spending could widen or narrow the final gap before primary day.
The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$0Data de Término
4 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 26, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MO-01 Democratic primary remains tightly contested ahead of the August 4 vote, with trader pricing reflecting uncertainty over the final margin between incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell and challenger Cori Bush. The race features a rematch of their 2024 contest, renewed focus on differences over Israel policy and local St. Louis issues such as immigration and tornado recovery funding, plus endorsements including recent support for Bell from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. A July 24 candidate debate on St. Louis Public Radio highlighted campaign finance and foreign policy contrasts without producing a clear shift in positioning. Minor candidates further complicate margin projections, while polling averages show the top two contenders statistically close. Late developments in turnout among key Democratic blocs or additional outside spending could widen or narrow the final gap before primary day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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