Austin Rogers leads the FL-02 Republican primary field as the August 18 vote nears, with trader consensus reflecting his edge in recent internal polling and local ties as a Panama City native and former counsel to Senator Rick Scott. The contest has narrowed to a two-candidate dynamic against Keith Gross, who has raised over $12 million but faces questions about his earlier Democratic affiliation in Georgia. A mid-August attack ad from a Rogers-linked PAC highlighting Gross’s background and same-sex marriage was withdrawn following a cease-and-desist, underscoring campaign tensions without altering the overall positioning. Lower-probability candidates including Evan Power and others trail significantly in both surveys and market pricing, consistent with limited statewide name recognition and fundraising gaps ahead of primary day.