China’s infrequent schedule of publicly acknowledged long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the 81.5% trader consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31. The most recent such event was a July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine training, which drew regional protests but produced no follow-on launches in the ensuing weeks. Subsequent reporting has focused on defensive exercises, including Taiwan’s Patriot and precision-strike drills, alongside standard satellite carrier rocket activity rather than military ballistic systems. Absent acute escalation in cross-strait or South China Sea tensions, or shifts in deterrence signaling, the pattern of spaced-out tests supports the current implied probability that no additional ICBM, SLBM, or ballistic anti-ship launches will occur before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLançamento de míssil balístico da China até 31 de dezembro?
Lançamento de míssil balístico da China até 31 de dezembro?
Sim
19% chance
$10,991 Vol.
$10,991 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
19% chance
$10,991 Vol.
$10,991 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s infrequent schedule of publicly acknowledged long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the 81.5% trader consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31. The most recent such event was a July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine training, which drew regional protests but produced no follow-on launches in the ensuing weeks. Subsequent reporting has focused on defensive exercises, including Taiwan’s Patriot and precision-strike drills, alongside standard satellite carrier rocket activity rather than military ballistic systems. Absent acute escalation in cross-strait or South China Sea tensions, or shifts in deterrence signaling, the pattern of spaced-out tests supports the current implied probability that no additional ICBM, SLBM, or ballistic anti-ship launches will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$10,991Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s infrequent schedule of publicly acknowledged long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the 81.5% trader consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31. The most recent such event was a July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine training, which drew regional protests but produced no follow-on launches in the ensuing weeks. Subsequent reporting has focused on defensive exercises, including Taiwan’s Patriot and precision-strike drills, alongside standard satellite carrier rocket activity rather than military ballistic systems. Absent acute escalation in cross-strait or South China Sea tensions, or shifts in deterrence signaling, the pattern of spaced-out tests supports the current implied probability that no additional ICBM, SLBM, or ballistic anti-ship launches will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$10,991Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China’s infrequent schedule of publicly acknowledged long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the 81.5% trader consensus favoring no qualifying launch by December 31. The most recent such event was a July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, described by Beijing as routine training, which drew regional protests but produced no follow-on launches in the ensuing weeks. Subsequent reporting has focused on defensive exercises, including Taiwan’s Patriot and precision-strike drills, alongside standard satellite carrier rocket activity rather than military ballistic systems. Absent acute escalation in cross-strait or South China Sea tensions, or shifts in deterrence signaling, the pattern of spaced-out tests supports the current implied probability that no additional ICBM, SLBM, or ballistic anti-ship launches will occur before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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