Zhang Youxia’s January 2026 investigation for “serious violations of discipline and law,” announced by China’s Ministry of National Defense, has triggered a high-profile military purge amid broader anti-corruption efforts targeting the Central Military Commission. Traders assign an 88.5 percent probability that he will not receive a formal prison sentence by December 31, 2026, reflecting the extended timelines typical of senior-level proceedings, where internal party discipline, expulsion, or suspended penalties often precede or substitute for public criminal trials. Recent cases involving other top generals have followed similar patterns of gradual resolution, and no court dates or verdicts have been reported in the five months since the probe began. Political sensitivities around a close Xi ally and procedural norms in China’s judicial system further support expectations that any custodial outcome would likely fall outside the market’s resolution window.