Ongoing maritime tensions in the South China Sea continue to feature coast guard rammings, water cannon incidents, and near-collisions at features like Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, yet both China and the Philippines have avoided direct naval engagements involving armed forces. Recent signs of diplomatic thaw, including bilateral talks on resupply missions and potential resource cooperation, combined with Philippine joint exercises alongside U.S., Japanese, and other allied forces, have reinforced deterrence against escalation. China's routine patrols and public warnings against external involvement reflect calibrated pressure rather than preparations for open conflict. These dynamics sustain trader consensus around an 80.5% probability that no military clash occurs before 2027, as historical patterns show both sides prioritizing managed friction over outright hostilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$356,126 Vol.
$356,126 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$356,126 Vol.
$356,126 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime tensions in the South China Sea continue to feature coast guard rammings, water cannon incidents, and near-collisions at features like Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, yet both China and the Philippines have avoided direct naval engagements involving armed forces. Recent signs of diplomatic thaw, including bilateral talks on resupply missions and potential resource cooperation, combined with Philippine joint exercises alongside U.S., Japanese, and other allied forces, have reinforced deterrence against escalation. China's routine patrols and public warnings against external involvement reflect calibrated pressure rather than preparations for open conflict. These dynamics sustain trader consensus around an 80.5% probability that no military clash occurs before 2027, as historical patterns show both sides prioritizing managed friction over outright hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$356,126Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime tensions in the South China Sea continue to feature coast guard rammings, water cannon incidents, and near-collisions at features like Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, yet both China and the Philippines have avoided direct naval engagements involving armed forces. Recent signs of diplomatic thaw, including bilateral talks on resupply missions and potential resource cooperation, combined with Philippine joint exercises alongside U.S., Japanese, and other allied forces, have reinforced deterrence against escalation. China's routine patrols and public warnings against external involvement reflect calibrated pressure rather than preparations for open conflict. These dynamics sustain trader consensus around an 80.5% probability that no military clash occurs before 2027, as historical patterns show both sides prioritizing managed friction over outright hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$356,126Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing maritime tensions in the South China Sea continue to feature coast guard rammings, water cannon incidents, and near-collisions at features like Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, yet both China and the Philippines have avoided direct naval engagements involving armed forces. Recent signs of diplomatic thaw, including bilateral talks on resupply missions and potential resource cooperation, combined with Philippine joint exercises alongside U.S., Japanese, and other allied forces, have reinforced deterrence against escalation. China's routine patrols and public warnings against external involvement reflect calibrated pressure rather than preparations for open conflict. These dynamics sustain trader consensus around an 80.5% probability that no military clash occurs before 2027, as historical patterns show both sides prioritizing managed friction over outright hostilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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