Recent developments from the May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing have reinforced trader expectations that no comprehensive US-China tariff agreement will materialize by May 31. The two sides extended elements of an existing trade truce, confirmed modest Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods and Boeing aircraft, and established a Board of Trade mechanism for ongoing discussions, yet no broad tariff reductions or new framework emerged. Remaining tariffs on tens of billions in goods continue amid unresolved issues over supply chains, technology, and reciprocal commitments. With only two weeks left in the resolution window and no scheduled announcements or legislative steps indicated, the implied 77.5% probability on “No” reflects the absence of imminent breakthroughs and the pattern of incremental rather than decisive progress in bilateral trade talks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
$66,032 Vol.
$66,032 Vol.
31 mai 2026
$66,032 Vol.
$66,032 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent developments from the May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing have reinforced trader expectations that no comprehensive US-China tariff agreement will materialize by May 31. The two sides extended elements of an existing trade truce, confirmed modest Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods and Boeing aircraft, and established a Board of Trade mechanism for ongoing discussions, yet no broad tariff reductions or new framework emerged. Remaining tariffs on tens of billions in goods continue amid unresolved issues over supply chains, technology, and reciprocal commitments. With only two weeks left in the resolution window and no scheduled announcements or legislative steps indicated, the implied 77.5% probability on “No” reflects the absence of imminent breakthroughs and the pattern of incremental rather than decisive progress in bilateral trade talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$66,032Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent developments from the May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing have reinforced trader expectations that no comprehensive US-China tariff agreement will materialize by May 31. The two sides extended elements of an existing trade truce, confirmed modest Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods and Boeing aircraft, and established a Board of Trade mechanism for ongoing discussions, yet no broad tariff reductions or new framework emerged. Remaining tariffs on tens of billions in goods continue amid unresolved issues over supply chains, technology, and reciprocal commitments. With only two weeks left in the resolution window and no scheduled announcements or legislative steps indicated, the implied 77.5% probability on “No” reflects the absence of imminent breakthroughs and the pattern of incremental rather than decisive progress in bilateral trade talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$66,032Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments from the May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing have reinforced trader expectations that no comprehensive US-China tariff agreement will materialize by May 31. The two sides extended elements of an existing trade truce, confirmed modest Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods and Boeing aircraft, and established a Board of Trade mechanism for ongoing discussions, yet no broad tariff reductions or new framework emerged. Remaining tariffs on tens of billions in goods continue amid unresolved issues over supply chains, technology, and reciprocal commitments. With only two weeks left in the resolution window and no scheduled announcements or legislative steps indicated, the implied 77.5% probability on “No” reflects the absence of imminent breakthroughs and the pattern of incremental rather than decisive progress in bilateral trade talks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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