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icon for Gasoduto Nord Stream ativado antes de 2027?

Gasoduto Nord Stream ativado antes de 2027?

icon for Gasoduto Nord Stream ativado antes de 2027?

Gasoduto Nord Stream ativado antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

5% chance
Polymarket

$10,572 Vol.

5% chance
Polymarket

$10,572 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, combined with EU sanctions that ban direct or indirect use of the Nord Stream pipelines, have solidified trader expectations against any restart before 2027. The 2022 sabotage left three of four lines inoperable, requiring extensive repairs that lack permits and solvent operators amid active restrictions. Europe's accelerated shift to diversified energy supplies, including plans to end all Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027, has removed commercial incentives for reactivation. Diplomatic signals from Russia and U.S. discussions have produced no concrete progress or ceasefire. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a comprehensive peace agreement enabling sanctions relief and permit renewals, though such developments face substantial technical, legal, and political obstacles before the December 2026 resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Volume
$10,572
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, combined with EU sanctions that ban direct or indirect use of the Nord Stream pipelines, have solidified trader expectations against any restart before 2027. The 2022 sabotage left three of four lines inoperable, requiring extensive repairs that lack permits and solvent operators amid active restrictions. Europe's accelerated shift to diversified energy supplies, including plans to end all Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027, has removed commercial incentives for reactivation. Diplomatic signals from Russia and U.S. discussions have produced no concrete progress or ceasefire. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a comprehensive peace agreement enabling sanctions relief and permit renewals, though such developments face substantial technical, legal, and political obstacles before the December 2026 resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Volume
$10,572
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Gasoduto Nord Stream ativado antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 5% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 5¢, the market collectively assigns a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Gasoduto Nord Stream ativado antes de 2027?" has generated $10.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Gasoduto Nord Stream ativado antes de 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Gasoduto Nord Stream ativado antes de 2027?" is 5% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Gasoduto Nord Stream ativado antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.