Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace, combined with resilient labor-market data showing 4.3% unemployment and steady nonfarm payroll gains, underpins traders’ 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2026. These figures reflect business-investment strength in AI-related equipment and a labor market that has avoided the Sahm Rule threshold despite earlier oil-price pressures pushing March CPI to 3.3%. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% signals confidence that inflation remains manageable, while easing geopolitical tensions around Iran have trimmed near-term downside risks. Key upcoming releases, including April CPI and the June FOMC meeting, will test whether this expansionary momentum persists.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRecessão dos EUA até o final de 2026?
Recessão dos EUA até o final de 2026?
Sim
$1,456,434 Vol.
$1,456,434 Vol.
31 jan 2027
Sim
$1,456,434 Vol.
$1,456,434 Vol.
31 jan 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productQ1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace, combined with resilient labor-market data showing 4.3% unemployment and steady nonfarm payroll gains, underpins traders’ 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2026. These figures reflect business-investment strength in AI-related equipment and a labor market that has avoided the Sahm Rule threshold despite earlier oil-price pressures pushing March CPI to 3.3%. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% signals confidence that inflation remains manageable, while easing geopolitical tensions around Iran have trimmed near-term downside risks. Key upcoming releases, including April CPI and the June FOMC meeting, will test whether this expansionary momentum persists.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Mercado Aberto: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,456,434Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productQ1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace, combined with resilient labor-market data showing 4.3% unemployment and steady nonfarm payroll gains, underpins traders’ 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2026. These figures reflect business-investment strength in AI-related equipment and a labor market that has avoided the Sahm Rule threshold despite earlier oil-price pressures pushing March CPI to 3.3%. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% signals confidence that inflation remains manageable, while easing geopolitical tensions around Iran have trimmed near-term downside risks. Key upcoming releases, including April CPI and the June FOMC meeting, will test whether this expansionary momentum persists.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$1,456,434Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace, combined with resilient labor-market data showing 4.3% unemployment and steady nonfarm payroll gains, underpins traders’ 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2026. These figures reflect business-investment strength in AI-related equipment and a labor market that has avoided the Sahm Rule threshold despite earlier oil-price pressures pushing March CPI to 3.3%. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% signals confidence that inflation remains manageable, while easing geopolitical tensions around Iran have trimmed near-term downside risks. Key upcoming releases, including April CPI and the June FOMC meeting, will test whether this expansionary momentum persists.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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