Skip to main content
icon for A Coreia do Norte invadirá a Coreia do Sul antes de 2027?

A Coreia do Norte invadirá a Coreia do Sul antes de 2027?

icon for A Coreia do Norte invadirá a Coreia do Sul antes de 2027?

A Coreia do Norte invadirá a Coreia do Sul antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

6% chance
Polymarket

$75,465 Vol.

Sim

6% chance
Polymarket

$75,465 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on the Korean Peninsula heavily favors no North Korean invasion of South Korea before 2027, driven by Pyongyang's May 2026 constitutional amendments that codify permanent borders, drop reunification objectives, and signal a policy of assurance against first strikes. Despite Kim Jong Un's May 8 announcement deploying new long-range artillery along the DMZ—capable of targeting Seoul—these align with routine provocations like ballistic missile tests during US-South Korea drills, lacking mobilization or logistical signs of invasion. North Korea's resource diversion to nuclear development and troop support for Russia's Ukraine war, alongside entrenched mutual deterrence and South Korea's superior defenses, sustain the high "No" odds, though sudden escalations like border incidents could shift sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$75,465
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on the Korean Peninsula heavily favors no North Korean invasion of South Korea before 2027, driven by Pyongyang's May 2026 constitutional amendments that codify permanent borders, drop reunification objectives, and signal a policy of assurance against first strikes. Despite Kim Jong Un's May 8 announcement deploying new long-range artillery along the DMZ—capable of targeting Seoul—these align with routine provocations like ballistic missile tests during US-South Korea drills, lacking mobilization or logistical signs of invasion. North Korea's resource diversion to nuclear development and troop support for Russia's Ukraine war, alongside entrenched mutual deterrence and South Korea's superior defenses, sustain the high "No" odds, though sudden escalations like border incidents could shift sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$75,465
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"A Coreia do Norte invadirá a Coreia do Sul antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A Coreia do Norte irá invadir a Coreia do Sul antes de 2027?" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A Coreia do Norte invadirá a Coreia do Sul antes de 2027?" has generated $75.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A Coreia do Norte invadirá a Coreia do Sul antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "A Coreia do Norte invadirá a Coreia do Sul antes de 2027?" is "A Coreia do Norte irá invadir a Coreia do Sul antes de 2027?" at just 6%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "A Coreia do Norte invadirá a Coreia do Sul antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.