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icon for Mojtaba Khamenei deixará o Irão até...?

Mojtaba Khamenei deixará o Irão até...?

icon for Mojtaba Khamenei deixará o Irão até...?

Mojtaba Khamenei deixará o Irão até...?

$117,838 Vol.

31 out 2026
Polymarket

$117,838 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de outubro

$119 Vol.

3%

31 de dezembro

$806 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a public appearance since succeeding his father as Iran’s Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly stated that Mojtaba remains alive, exercises final authority, and operates from a secure domestic location amid ongoing conflict, citing security needs to explain the absence of video, audio, or in-person confirmation. Regime-aligned accounts have described him attending private ceremonies or issuing directives, while external reporting has included unverified claims of injury, limited mobility, or possible foreign medical treatment. Trader pricing on departure markets through late 2026 reflects the lack of credible confirmation that he has left Iranian territory, combined with the regime’s emphasis on continuity of leadership from within the country and persistent threats that favor internal protection over relocation. Upcoming war developments or verified sightings could still shift assessments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.

Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$117,838
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a public appearance since succeeding his father as Iran’s Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly stated that Mojtaba remains alive, exercises final authority, and operates from a secure domestic location amid ongoing conflict, citing security needs to explain the absence of video, audio, or in-person confirmation. Regime-aligned accounts have described him attending private ceremonies or issuing directives, while external reporting has included unverified claims of injury, limited mobility, or possible foreign medical treatment. Trader pricing on departure markets through late 2026 reflects the lack of credible confirmation that he has left Iranian territory, combined with the regime’s emphasis on continuity of leadership from within the country and persistent threats that favor internal protection over relocation. Upcoming war developments or verified sightings could still shift assessments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.

Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$117,838
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Mojtaba Khamenei deixará o Irão até...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 4%, followed by "31 de outubro" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mojtaba Khamenei deixará o Irão até...?" has generated $117.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mojtaba Khamenei deixará o Irão até...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Mojtaba Khamenei deixará o Irão até...?" is "31 de dezembro" at just 4%, with "31 de outubro" close behind at 3%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Mojtaba Khamenei deixará o Irão até...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.