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Política·Prémios

Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026

icon for Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026
Política·Prémios

Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026

Donald Trump 9%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 5.8%

UNRWA 4.7%

Polymarket

$17,056,687 Vol.

Donald Trump 9%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 5.8%

UNRWA 4.7%

Polymarket

$17,056,687 Vol.

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$2,980,148 Vol.

9%

icon for Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya

$155,208 Vol.

8%

icon for Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$465,609 Vol.

6%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$1,945,480 Vol.

5%

icon for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$610,412 Vol.

4%

icon for Papa Leão XIV

Papa Leão XIV

$697,853 Vol.

3%

icon for Tribunal Internacional de Justiça

Tribunal Internacional de Justiça

$759,240 Vol.

2%

icon for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

$543,359 Vol.

2%

icon for Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

$1,130,670 Vol.

1%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,183,864 Vol.

1%

icon for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk

$888,117 Vol.

1%

icon for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$695,990 Vol.

1%

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$925,676 Vol.

1%

icon for António Guterres

António Guterres

$406,372 Vol.

1%

icon for Khaled Mashal

Khaled Mashal

$442,439 Vol.

1%

icon for Mohammed bin Salman

Mohammed bin Salman

$801,980 Vol.

1%

icon for Julian Assange

Julian Assange

$487,551 Vol.

1%

icon for Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin

$727,489 Vol.

1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$716,410 Vol.

<1%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$493,030 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize remains highly fragmented, with Donald Trump edging out frontrunners at an 8.5% implied probability after public nominations from leaders in Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan highlighted his diplomatic overtures, propelling a recent surge from lower odds. Yulia Navalnaya follows closely at 7.5%, gaining momentum from her vocal opposition to Russian aggression following Alexei Navalny's death, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 5.8% reflects Ukraine's enduring resistance storyline amid stalled peace talks. UNRWA (4.7%) and Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (4.2%) draw bets on Gaza mediation efforts, underscoring competitive dynamics tied to active global conflicts. The Norwegian Nobel Committee's secret deliberations and history of upsets—overlooking past favorites—keep the field volatile until the October 9 announcement.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,056,687
Data de Término
10 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize remains highly fragmented, with Donald Trump edging out frontrunners at an 8.5% implied probability after public nominations from leaders in Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan highlighted his diplomatic overtures, propelling a recent surge from lower odds. Yulia Navalnaya follows closely at 7.5%, gaining momentum from her vocal opposition to Russian aggression following Alexei Navalny's death, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 5.8% reflects Ukraine's enduring resistance storyline amid stalled peace talks. UNRWA (4.7%) and Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (4.2%) draw bets on Gaza mediation efforts, underscoring competitive dynamics tied to active global conflicts. The Norwegian Nobel Committee's secret deliberations and history of upsets—overlooking past favorites—keep the field volatile until the October 9 announcement.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,056,687
Data de Término
10 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Donald Trump" at 9%, followed by "Yulia Navalnaya" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" has generated $17.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" is "Donald Trump" at just 9%, with "Yulia Navalnaya" close behind at 8%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.