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Política·Prémios

Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026

icon for Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026
Política·Prémios

Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 5.8%

UNRWA 4.0%

Papa Leão XIV 3.0%

Polymarket

$23,371,911 Vol.

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 5.8%

UNRWA 4.0%

Papa Leão XIV 3.0%

Polymarket

$23,371,911 Vol.

icon for Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya

$289,460 Vol.

8%

icon for Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$790,330 Vol.

6%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$2,043,456 Vol.

4%

icon for Papa Leão XIV

Papa Leão XIV

$810,474 Vol.

3%

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$4,343,175 Vol.

2%

icon for Tribunal Internacional de Justiça

Tribunal Internacional de Justiça

$898,521 Vol.

2%

icon for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$782,546 Vol.

2%

icon for Julian Assange

Julian Assange

$849,522 Vol.

1%

icon for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

$685,776 Vol.

1%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,451,245 Vol.

1%

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$1,261,796 Vol.

1%

icon for António Guterres

António Guterres

$627,530 Vol.

1%

icon for Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

$1,433,967 Vol.

1%

icon for Khaled Mashal

Khaled Mashal

$866,146 Vol.

1%

icon for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$1,053,661 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mohammed bin Salman

Mohammed bin Salman

$1,172,624 Vol.

<1%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$691,786 Vol.

<1%

icon for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk

$1,244,854 Vol.

<1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$1,170,750 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin

$904,292 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Yulia Navalnaya holds a narrow lead in the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market as the widow of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, capitalizing on sustained global attention to human rights advocacy and anti-authoritarian campaigns. Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows closely behind, buoyed by ongoing nominations tied to Ukraine’s defense efforts against Russian aggression, a storyline that resonates with historical precedent for wartime leadership recognition. The tightly clustered field reflects fragmented trader sentiment, with organizations like UNRWA and figures such as Pope Leo XIV or Donald Trump each drawing modest support based on distinct diplomatic or humanitarian profiles. Key swing factors include October’s secretive announcement and any late-breaking developments in conflicts or advocacy work that could shift momentum ahead of the ceremony.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$23,371,911
Data de Término
10 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Yulia Navalnaya holds a narrow lead in the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market as the widow of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, capitalizing on sustained global attention to human rights advocacy and anti-authoritarian campaigns. Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows closely behind, buoyed by ongoing nominations tied to Ukraine’s defense efforts against Russian aggression, a storyline that resonates with historical precedent for wartime leadership recognition. The tightly clustered field reflects fragmented trader sentiment, with organizations like UNRWA and figures such as Pope Leo XIV or Donald Trump each drawing modest support based on distinct diplomatic or humanitarian profiles. Key swing factors include October’s secretive announcement and any late-breaking developments in conflicts or advocacy work that could shift momentum ahead of the ceremony.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$23,371,911
Data de Término
10 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yulia Navalnaya" at 8%, followed by "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" has generated $23.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" is "Yulia Navalnaya" at just 8%, with "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" close behind at 6%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.