**Recent euro area inflation data and energy price pressures have positioned a 25 basis point ECB rate increase as the clear market consensus for the September 2026 meeting.** July 2026 headline inflation rose to 2.9% from 2.8% the prior month, exceeding the ECB’s 2% target and driven primarily by a sharp acceleration in energy prices to 10% year-on-year amid renewed Middle East supply disruptions. Core inflation also edged higher to 2.5%. Following the July Governing Council meeting, where rates were held steady, President Lagarde explicitly flagged upside risks to the inflation outlook from oil prices, prompting analysts to view a September tightening as the most likely outcome. Updated staff projections and the absence of clear evidence that second-round effects have been contained further support expectations for this measured adjustment rather than larger moves or an immediate pause. The September 9–10 decision timing, combined with ongoing data dependence, leaves limited room for reversal absent a rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharply weaker growth readings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTaxas de Juros do BCE: setembro de 2026
Taxas de Juros do BCE: setembro de 2026
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 87%
Nenhuma alteração 13%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base 1.7%
Redução de 25 pontos base <1%
$179,160 Vol.
$179,160 Vol.
10 set 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Redução de 25 pontos base
1%
Nenhuma alteração
13%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
87%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
2%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 87%
Nenhuma alteração 13%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base 1.7%
Redução de 25 pontos base <1%
$179,160 Vol.
$179,160 Vol.
10 set 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
$13,929 Vol.
<1%
Redução de 25 pontos base
$23,828 Vol.
1%
Nenhuma alteração
$53,242 Vol.
13%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$61,491 Vol.
87%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$26,669 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent euro area inflation data and energy price pressures have positioned a 25 basis point ECB rate increase as the clear market consensus for the September 2026 meeting.** July 2026 headline inflation rose to 2.9% from 2.8% the prior month, exceeding the ECB’s 2% target and driven primarily by a sharp acceleration in energy prices to 10% year-on-year amid renewed Middle East supply disruptions.
Core inflation also edged higher to 2.5%. Following the July Governing Council meeting, where rates were held steady, President Lagarde explicitly flagged upside risks to the inflation outlook from oil prices, prompting analysts to view a September tightening as the most likely outcome. Updated staff projections and the absence of clear evidence that second-round effects have been contained further support expectations for this measured adjustment rather than larger moves or an immediate pause.
The September 9–10 decision timing, combined with ongoing data dependence, leaves limited room for reversal absent a rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharply weaker growth readings.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$179,160Data de Término
10 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent euro area inflation data and energy price pressures have positioned a 25 basis point ECB rate increase as the clear market consensus for the September 2026 meeting.** July 2026 headline inflation rose to 2.9% from 2.8% the prior month, exceeding the ECB’s 2% target and driven primarily by a sharp acceleration in energy prices to 10% year-on-year amid renewed Middle East supply disruptions.
Core inflation also edged higher to 2.5%. Following the July Governing Council meeting, where rates were held steady, President Lagarde explicitly flagged upside risks to the inflation outlook from oil prices, prompting analysts to view a September tightening as the most likely outcome. Updated staff projections and the absence of clear evidence that second-round effects have been contained further support expectations for this measured adjustment rather than larger moves or an immediate pause.
The September 9–10 decision timing, combined with ongoing data dependence, leaves limited room for reversal absent a rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharply weaker growth readings.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$179,160Data de Término
10 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent euro area inflation data and energy price pressures have positioned a 25 basis point ECB rate increase as the clear market consensus for the September 2026 meeting.** July 2026 headline inflation rose to 2.9% from 2.8% the prior month, exceeding the ECB’s 2% target and driven primarily by a sharp acceleration in energy prices to 10% year-on-year amid renewed Middle East supply disruptions. Core inflation also edged higher to 2.5%. Following the July Governing Council meeting, where rates were held steady, President Lagarde explicitly flagged upside risks to the inflation outlook from oil prices, prompting analysts to view a September tightening as the most likely outcome. Updated staff projections and the absence of clear evidence that second-round effects have been contained further support expectations for this measured adjustment rather than larger moves or an immediate pause. The September 9–10 decision timing, combined with ongoing data dependence, leaves limited room for reversal absent a rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharply weaker growth readings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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