Elon Musk’s posting pace on X during the September 8–15 window settled at 186 posts, locking the 180-199 bracket at 100% implied probability. Traders converged on this outcome because recent weekly totals have clustered in the low-to-mid 100s to low 200s during periods of steady commentary on Tesla updates, platform developments, and political topics, without the extreme spikes or multi-day lulls seen in other 2026 brackets. A daily rhythm near 25–30 posts aligned closely with observed patterns in quieter stretches, and live trackers confirmed the count stayed within the narrow band as the period closed. An upset would have required either a sharp acceleration from breaking news or a near-total slowdown, neither of which occurred.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado180-199 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$2,402,235 Vol.
$2,402,235 Vol.
15 set 2026
<20
Não
20-39
Não
40-59
Não
60-79
Não
80-99
Não
100-119
Não
120-139
Não
140-159
Não
160-179
Não
180-199
Sim
200-219
Não
220-239
Não
240-259
Não
260-279
Não
280-299
Não
300-319
Não
320-339
Não
340-359
Não
360-379
Não
380-399
Não
400-419
Não
420-439
Não
440-459
Não
460-479
Não
480-499
Não
500+
Não
180-199 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$2,402,235 Vol.
$2,402,235 Vol.
15 set 2026
<20
$1,340 Vol.
Não
20-39
$1,227 Vol.
Não
40-59
$2,810 Vol.
Não
60-79
$16,141 Vol.
Não
80-99
$127,425 Vol.
Não
100-119
$169,705 Vol.
Não
120-139
$210,422 Vol.
Não
140-159
$211,164 Vol.
Não
160-179
$273,971 Vol.
Não
180-199
$270,739 Vol.
Sim
200-219
$313,850 Vol.
Não
220-239
$211,564 Vol.
Não
240-259
$153,573 Vol.
Não
260-279
$89,329 Vol.
Não
280-299
$72,529 Vol.
Não
300-319
$65,208 Vol.
Não
320-339
$39,181 Vol.
Não
340-359
$30,620 Vol.
Não
360-379
$30,099 Vol.
Não
380-399
$20,993 Vol.
Não
400-419
$21,161 Vol.
Não
420-439
$6,123 Vol.
Não
440-459
$2,893 Vol.
Não
460-479
$1,900 Vol.
Não
480-499
$3,583 Vol.
Não
500+
$54,686 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s posting pace on X during the September 8–15 window settled at 186 posts, locking the 180-199 bracket at 100% implied probability. Traders converged on this outcome because recent weekly totals have clustered in the low-to-mid 100s to low 200s during periods of steady commentary on Tesla updates, platform developments, and political topics, without the extreme spikes or multi-day lulls seen in other 2026 brackets. A daily rhythm near 25–30 posts aligned closely with observed patterns in quieter stretches, and live trackers confirmed the count stayed within the narrow band as the period closed. An upset would have required either a sharp acceleration from breaking news or a near-total slowdown, neither of which occurred.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$2,402,235Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s posting pace on X during the September 8–15 window settled at 186 posts, locking the 180-199 bracket at 100% implied probability. Traders converged on this outcome because recent weekly totals have clustered in the low-to-mid 100s to low 200s during periods of steady commentary on Tesla updates, platform developments, and political topics, without the extreme spikes or multi-day lulls seen in other 2026 brackets. A daily rhythm near 25–30 posts aligned closely with observed patterns in quieter stretches, and live trackers confirmed the count stayed within the narrow band as the period closed. An upset would have required either a sharp acceleration from breaking news or a near-total slowdown, neither of which occurred.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$2,402,235Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Elon Musk’s posting pace on X during the September 8–15 window settled at 186 posts, locking the 180-199 bracket at 100% implied probability. Traders converged on this outcome because recent weekly totals have clustered in the low-to-mid 100s to low 200s during periods of steady commentary on Tesla updates, platform developments, and political topics, without the extreme spikes or multi-day lulls seen in other 2026 brackets. A daily rhythm near 25–30 posts aligned closely with observed patterns in quieter stretches, and live trackers confirmed the count stayed within the narrow band as the period closed. An upset would have required either a sharp acceleration from breaking news or a near-total slowdown, neither of which occurred.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions