Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a warm, humid subtropical airmass over southern China as the main driver behind trader focus on peak temperatures near the upper 30s. Persistent high pressure and light winds favor strong daytime heating in Guangzhou's urban environment, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could enhance cloud cover and cap readings depending on timing and intensity. Model spread arises from uncertainties in precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and local land-sea breezes, which historically produce day-to-day variations of 2–4°C in July. These factors create the observed wide probability distribution, with traders weighting outcomes based on the latest model runs and observed trends of 33–35°C highs earlier in the month. Updated forecasts ahead of July 12 will likely refine the consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Guangzhou em 12 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Guangzhou em 12 de julho?
38°C 36%
39°C 27%
37°C 16%
40°C 12%
NOVO
NOVO
12 jul 2026
31°C ou menos
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
8%
37°C
16%
38°C
36%
39°C
27%
40°C
12%
41°C ou mais
2%
38°C 36%
39°C 27%
37°C 16%
40°C 12%
NOVO
NOVO
12 jul 2026
31°C ou menos
$475 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$27 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$90 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$38 Vol.
1%
35°C
$117 Vol.
4%
36°C
$5 Vol.
8%
37°C
$446 Vol.
16%
38°C
$436 Vol.
36%
39°C
$27 Vol.
27%
40°C
$157 Vol.
12%
41°C ou mais
$44 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a warm, humid subtropical airmass over southern China as the main driver behind trader focus on peak temperatures near the upper 30s. Persistent high pressure and light winds favor strong daytime heating in Guangzhou's urban environment, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could enhance cloud cover and cap readings depending on timing and intensity. Model spread arises from uncertainties in precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and local land-sea breezes, which historically produce day-to-day variations of 2–4°C in July. These factors create the observed wide probability distribution, with traders weighting outcomes based on the latest model runs and observed trends of 33–35°C highs earlier in the month. Updated forecasts ahead of July 12 will likely refine the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$1,862Data de Término
12 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a warm, humid subtropical airmass over southern China as the main driver behind trader focus on peak temperatures near the upper 30s. Persistent high pressure and light winds favor strong daytime heating in Guangzhou's urban environment, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could enhance cloud cover and cap readings depending on timing and intensity. Model spread arises from uncertainties in precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and local land-sea breezes, which historically produce day-to-day variations of 2–4°C in July. These factors create the observed wide probability distribution, with traders weighting outcomes based on the latest model runs and observed trends of 33–35°C highs earlier in the month. Updated forecasts ahead of July 12 will likely refine the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,862Data de Término
12 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a warm, humid subtropical airmass over southern China as the main driver behind trader focus on peak temperatures near the upper 30s. Persistent high pressure and light winds favor strong daytime heating in Guangzhou's urban environment, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could enhance cloud cover and cap readings depending on timing and intensity. Model spread arises from uncertainties in precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and local land-sea breezes, which historically produce day-to-day variations of 2–4°C in July. These factors create the observed wide probability distribution, with traders weighting outcomes based on the latest model runs and observed trends of 33–35°C highs earlier in the month. Updated forecasts ahead of July 12 will likely refine the consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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