Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish Meteorological Service place Istanbul's July 11 daytime maximum near 27–29 °C under a moderately moist air mass with limited insolation from variable cloud cover and Bosphorus sea-breeze cooling. This consensus underpins the market's leading 28 °C outcome at 32.5 % implied probability, while the broad distribution across 26–30 °C reflects remaining uncertainty in exact convective timing and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July climatology centers near 29 °C, but short-term model updates through the next 48 hours remain the dominant driver of any repricing ahead of official station resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Istambul no dia 11 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Istambul no dia 11 de julho?
28°C 47%
27°C 24%
29°C 23%
30°C 6%
NOVO
NOVO
11 jul 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
24%
28°C
47%
29°C
23%
30°C
6%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 47%
27°C 24%
29°C 23%
30°C 6%
NOVO
NOVO
11 jul 2026
22°C or below
$432 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$608 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$435 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$276 Vol.
1%
26°C
$285 Vol.
5%
27°C
$375 Vol.
24%
28°C
$3,181 Vol.
47%
29°C
$365 Vol.
23%
30°C
$698 Vol.
6%
31°C
$184 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$1,274 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish Meteorological Service place Istanbul's July 11 daytime maximum near 27–29 °C under a moderately moist air mass with limited insolation from variable cloud cover and Bosphorus sea-breeze cooling. This consensus underpins the market's leading 28 °C outcome at 32.5 % implied probability, while the broad distribution across 26–30 °C reflects remaining uncertainty in exact convective timing and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July climatology centers near 29 °C, but short-term model updates through the next 48 hours remain the dominant driver of any repricing ahead of official station resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$8,114Data de Término
11 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish Meteorological Service place Istanbul's July 11 daytime maximum near 27–29 °C under a moderately moist air mass with limited insolation from variable cloud cover and Bosphorus sea-breeze cooling. This consensus underpins the market's leading 28 °C outcome at 32.5 % implied probability, while the broad distribution across 26–30 °C reflects remaining uncertainty in exact convective timing and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July climatology centers near 29 °C, but short-term model updates through the next 48 hours remain the dominant driver of any repricing ahead of official station resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,114Data de Término
11 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish Meteorological Service place Istanbul's July 11 daytime maximum near 27–29 °C under a moderately moist air mass with limited insolation from variable cloud cover and Bosphorus sea-breeze cooling. This consensus underpins the market's leading 28 °C outcome at 32.5 % implied probability, while the broad distribution across 26–30 °C reflects remaining uncertainty in exact convective timing and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July climatology centers near 29 °C, but short-term model updates through the next 48 hours remain the dominant driver of any repricing ahead of official station resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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