Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on July 20 will likely reach 36–38°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. This aligns with the market's leading 37°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus around that threshold. Historical July averages near 33°C provide baseline context, while the urban heat island effect in central Madrid can add 1–2°C locally. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential minor shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, with AEMET updates and final model runs expected to refine resolution criteria over the next 48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 20 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 20 de julho?
37°C 53%
36°C 23%
38°C 19%
34°C 6%
NOVO
NOVO
20 jul 2026
32°C ou menos
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
6%
35°C
8%
36°C
23%
37°C
53%
38°C
19%
39°C
5%
40°C
2%
41°C
1%
42°C ou mais
1%
37°C 53%
36°C 23%
38°C 19%
34°C 6%
NOVO
NOVO
20 jul 2026
32°C ou menos
$171 Vol.
1%
33°C
$166 Vol.
1%
34°C
$112 Vol.
6%
35°C
$90 Vol.
8%
36°C
$112 Vol.
23%
37°C
$159 Vol.
53%
38°C
$105 Vol.
19%
39°C
$40 Vol.
5%
40°C
$119 Vol.
2%
41°C
$90 Vol.
1%
42°C ou mais
$90 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on July 20 will likely reach 36–38°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. This aligns with the market's leading 37°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus around that threshold. Historical July averages near 33°C provide baseline context, while the urban heat island effect in central Madrid can add 1–2°C locally. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential minor shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, with AEMET updates and final model runs expected to refine resolution criteria over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 18, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$1,253Data de Término
20 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 18, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on July 20 will likely reach 36–38°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. This aligns with the market's leading 37°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus around that threshold. Historical July averages near 33°C provide baseline context, while the urban heat island effect in central Madrid can add 1–2°C locally. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential minor shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, with AEMET updates and final model runs expected to refine resolution criteria over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,253Data de Término
20 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 18, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on July 20 will likely reach 36–38°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. This aligns with the market's leading 37°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus around that threshold. Historical July averages near 33°C provide baseline context, while the urban heat island effect in central Madrid can add 1–2°C locally. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential minor shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, with AEMET updates and final model runs expected to refine resolution criteria over the next 48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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