**Recent cooling after France's record June heatwave is the main driver behind the market's concentration on 26–27°C as the most probable high for Paris on July 2.** A historic national thermal indicator peak of 29.8°C on June 23, with red alerts and Paris-area highs approaching 40°C mid-week, has given way to moderating conditions as the intense heat dome weakens. Ensemble forecasts and climatological baselines for early July (typical highs 24–26°C) now point to seasonal values rather than continued extremes, with 27°C capturing the largest share of implied probability at 36% and 26°C at 26%. **Key scientific factors include post-heatwave atmospheric readjustment, with steering patterns and reduced subsidence favoring modest daytime maxima.** Model consensus from sources such as Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely outcome near the long-term early-July average, while tail risks for 29°C+ or sub-24°C remain low (under 15% combined). Traders are pricing in the rapid shift from anomalous late-June warmth, consistent with how short-range forecasts evolve two days before the observation window. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on July 2?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 2?
27°C 33%
26°C 30%
25°C 12%
28°C 12.0%
NOVO
NOVO
2 jul 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
12%
26°C
30%
27°C
33%
28°C
12%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 33%
26°C 30%
25°C 12%
28°C 12.0%
NOVO
NOVO
2 jul 2026
21°C or below
$41 Vol.
1%
22°C
$111 Vol.
1%
23°C
$137 Vol.
1%
24°C
$36 Vol.
4%
25°C
$169 Vol.
12%
26°C
$137 Vol.
30%
27°C
$1,966 Vol.
33%
28°C
$140 Vol.
12%
29°C
$306 Vol.
5%
30°C
$95 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$252 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cooling after France's record June heatwave is the main driver behind the market's concentration on 26–27°C as the most probable high for Paris on July 2.** A historic national thermal indicator peak of 29.8°C on June 23, with red alerts and Paris-area highs approaching 40°C mid-week, has given way to moderating conditions as the intense heat dome weakens. Ensemble forecasts and climatological baselines for early July (typical highs 24–26°C) now point to seasonal values rather than continued extremes, with 27°C capturing the largest share of implied probability at 36% and 26°C at 26%.
**Key scientific factors include post-heatwave atmospheric readjustment, with steering patterns and reduced subsidence favoring modest daytime maxima.** Model consensus from sources such as Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely outcome near the long-term early-July average, while tail risks for 29°C+ or sub-24°C remain low (under 15% combined). Traders are pricing in the rapid shift from anomalous late-June warmth, consistent with how short-range forecasts evolve two days before the observation window. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 30, 2026, 1:01 AM ET
Volume
$3,390Data de Término
2 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:01 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cooling after France's record June heatwave is the main driver behind the market's concentration on 26–27°C as the most probable high for Paris on July 2.** A historic national thermal indicator peak of 29.8°C on June 23, with red alerts and Paris-area highs approaching 40°C mid-week, has given way to moderating conditions as the intense heat dome weakens. Ensemble forecasts and climatological baselines for early July (typical highs 24–26°C) now point to seasonal values rather than continued extremes, with 27°C capturing the largest share of implied probability at 36% and 26°C at 26%.
**Key scientific factors include post-heatwave atmospheric readjustment, with steering patterns and reduced subsidence favoring modest daytime maxima.** Model consensus from sources such as Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely outcome near the long-term early-July average, while tail risks for 29°C+ or sub-24°C remain low (under 15% combined). Traders are pricing in the rapid shift from anomalous late-June warmth, consistent with how short-range forecasts evolve two days before the observation window. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,390Data de Término
2 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:01 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent cooling after France's record June heatwave is the main driver behind the market's concentration on 26–27°C as the most probable high for Paris on July 2.** A historic national thermal indicator peak of 29.8°C on June 23, with red alerts and Paris-area highs approaching 40°C mid-week, has given way to moderating conditions as the intense heat dome weakens. Ensemble forecasts and climatological baselines for early July (typical highs 24–26°C) now point to seasonal values rather than continued extremes, with 27°C capturing the largest share of implied probability at 36% and 26°C at 26%. **Key scientific factors include post-heatwave atmospheric readjustment, with steering patterns and reduced subsidence favoring modest daytime maxima.** Model consensus from sources such as Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely outcome near the long-term early-July average, while tail risks for 29°C+ or sub-24°C remain low (under 15% combined). Traders are pricing in the rapid shift from anomalous late-June warmth, consistent with how short-range forecasts evolve two days before the observation window. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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